Consumer and retail businesses see improved profits in the third quarter

(Dan Tri) - The recovery of domestic purchasing power, along with the expansion of modern retail channels, is helping many leading businesses significantly improve their third quarter profits.

Growth drivers from domestic demand and expectations of global capital flows

According to SSI’s report, out of 42 listed companies analyzed, 23 units forecast growth in the third quarter, notably in the retail, steel, seaport and thermal power groups. This shows that retail consumption has a clear rebound thanks to the shift to modern retail channels and more stable consumption trends.

The retail market is booming, many securities companies forecast Masan 's full-year profit and revenue to increase sharply (Photo: MSN).

For Masan Group (MSN), SSI forecasts that its third quarter after-tax profit will reach around VND1,700 billion, up 31% year-on-year and 5% year-on-year. The company's reported figure even forecasts a level equivalent to nearly 90% of the year's profit target after just 9 months.

Based on this, many securities companies have raised their forecasts. VCBS expects Masan's revenue for the whole year of 2025 to reach VND87,270 billion, profit after tax to reach VND5,600 billion, with a target stock price of over VND100,000.

BVSC also forecasts revenue of VND85,042 billion, profit after tax of parent company shareholders of VND3,501 billion, and raises MSN's valuation to VND106,000/share, about 30% higher than the current market price.

In the context of the Vietnamese market being officially upgraded to the emerging market group by FTSE Russell in September 2026, many global financial institutions such as JP Morgan, HSBC, SSI Research, and SHS Research simultaneously forecast that large-scale foreign capital flows will flow strongly into Vietnam from the end of this year.

According to JP Morgan, Vietnam could attract $1.3 billion in passive capital flows in the first phase of the upgrade, with about 22 potential large stocks added to the FTSE Emerging Index basket, including MSN.

SHS Research also estimates that total capital inflows could reach $3.4 billion, including about $1.5 billion in passive capital flows and $1.9 billion in active capital flows, with active funds tending to “go ahead” to seize opportunities before the mid-term review in March 2026.

Sustainable growth from resonance within the same ecosystem

Masan’s Q3 growth momentum was reinforced by synergies across the entire consumer-retail ecosystem. WinCommerce continued to lead the way with Q3 revenue exceeding VND10,000 billion, the highest level ever, thanks to reasonable network expansion, operational optimization and technology application.

WinCommerce continues to lead Masan's member companies in revenue thanks to reasonable network expansion, operational optimization and technology application (Photo: MSN).

Masan MEATLife (MML) also showed a clear improvement in profits, recording revenue of VND999 billion and net profit of VND35 billion in August. Focusing on chilled meat and value-added processed foods has helped this segment gradually assert its pivotal role in the overall profit structure.

At the same time, after restructuring its operating model, Phuc Long has stabilized, focusing resources on high-performance stores in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, thereby improving business efficiency.

Meanwhile, Masan Consumer (MCH), despite pressure from changes in distribution channels and seasons, is still assessed positively in the fourth quarter as it enters the peak period of food and consumer goods consumption.

In general, the even recovery in the retail, food, beverage, etc. segments has helped the overall profit structure become more stable. VCBS forecasts that in the third quarter, MSN's revenue could reach VND21,000 billion, with after-tax profit of VND1,700 billion.

With this momentum, the whole year's revenue is estimated to reach VND85,000-87,000 billion, after-tax profit VND3,500-5,600 billion, a growth rate of 30% to 75% compared to 2024. This is the basis for analysis organizations to believe that the enterprise will not only complete but also exceed this year's plan.

Masan's full-year revenue is estimated at VND85,000-87,000 billion, an increase of 30% compared to 2024 (Photo: MSN).

However, experts also noted that the competitive environment is increasingly fierce, profit margins are affected by expansion investment costs and changes in consumer behavior. In that context, maintaining double-digit growth shows Masan's ability to adapt and operate effectively in a period of strong market transformation.

The forecast results for the third quarter show that the consumer-retail group is gradually regaining growth momentum after a period of many fluctuations. The improvement in profits in many business segments, along with optimistic forecasts from securities companies, reflects growing confidence in the recovery of the domestic market.

The growth prospects of the consumer-retail group are strengthened, but to turn expectations into actual results, businesses still need to adapt quickly to fluctuations in costs, competition and changing consumer behavior.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/doanh-nghiep-tieu-dung-ban-le-khoi-sac-loi-nhuan-quy-iii-20251013115058578.htm