Expectations of easing US-China trade tensions

Global trade fluctuations, especially between the world's two largest economies, the US and China, are one of the top topics at the Fall Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB), taking place in Washington DC, the US capital.

The IMF report has confirmed that the US-China trade tensions have a major impact on global trade flows. Therefore, the bilateral meeting between the two countries' leaders on the sidelines of the upcoming APEC conference in Korea is also receiving great attention from analysts. From Washington, the Vietnam Television Resident Reporters team had an interview with Mr. Gregory B. Poling, an expert from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on this topic.

PV: What do you expect from the results of this important meeting?

Mr. Gregory B. Poling - Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) - USA : I do not expect too much from the meeting. Since taking office, President Trump has repeatedly said that if he could meet President Xi Jinping directly, the two sides could reach a large, comprehensive agreement that could address US concerns about overcapacity and trade deficits.

The problem is that few economists believe such a deal is possible. The two sides may reach small agreements, on TikTok or soybeans, but the likelihood of a major deal is low, as it would require China to make structural changes to its economic model and programs that President Xi Jinping has identified as key to China’s economic future.

PV: You said that to have a deal, China must accept the demands of the US, but do you think the Chinese side believes that their economic structure is good. They have been on the right track for many years and do not accept the requests for changes?

Mr. Gregory B. Poling - Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) - USA : From China's perspective, I think they have shown that they can protect their interests. They have temporarily restricted the export of some minerals to the US and Washington has had to make concessions. China is willing to suffer more economic losses than the Americans.

While Beijing does not want a trade war, I think Chinese leaders feel that they have some understanding of what the Trump administration wants.

PV: Thank you for this interview!

Source: https://vtv.vn/ky-vong-giam-cang-thang-thuong-mai-my-trung-quoc-100251016170240462.htm