World oil prices fall to 4-month low

World oil prices continued to fall for the third consecutive session and hit a 16-week low on October 1, as the US government shutdown increased concerns about the global economic outlook.

Workers work at an oil refinery in Wasit province, Iraq. Photo: THX/TTXVN

The market also forecasts that oil supply will increase in the coming time, as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, also known as OPEC+, prepare to raise production from next month.

At the end of this session, Brent oil futures for delivery in London fell 68 US cents, equivalent to 1%, to 65.35 USD/barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil also fell 59 cents, equivalent to 0.9%, to 61.78 USD/barrel. This is the lowest closing level since June 5, 2025 for Brent oil and since May 30, 2025 for WTI oil.

The CEO of Diamondback Energy, one of the leading US oil producers, said US oil production growth will slow if oil prices remain around $60 a barrel, as the number of profitable drilling sites will decline sharply. US gasoline futures ended the session at their lowest level in nearly a year.

According to analyst Janiv Shah of consultancy Rystad, traders expect OPEC+ to continue increasing oil production in November, similar to the increase in September 2025, even though demand in the US and Asia has started to decrease.

OPEC+ could agree to increase production by up to 500,000 barrels a day in November, three times the increase in October, as Saudi Arabia seeks to regain market share, three sources familiar with the matter said. However, OPEC said on its social media platform X that reports of such a production increase were “misleading”.

An OPEC+ committee stressed the need for full compliance with output cuts and asked some members to continue with additional cuts to offset previous overshoots.

Oil prices were also pressured by a larger-than-expected increase in US crude inventories last week. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said US crude inventories rose by 1.8 million barrels in the week ended September 26, much higher than the 1 million barrel forecast by analysts. Meanwhile, a day earlier, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 3.7 million barrel decline.

Phil Flynn, an expert at the financial brokerage and asset management company Price Futures Group, commented: “Oil inventories increased due to a decrease in exports, indicating weaker demand. Along with that, a strong wave of selling due to the US government shutdown raised concerns about a weakening economy and a decrease in demand.”

The US government was forced to shut down most of its operations on October 1 (local time) after deep divisions between Congress and the White House prevented the two sides from reaching a budget deal. Government agencies warned that this would delay the release of many important economic reports – including September 2025 employment data – on time.

The White House warned of the risk of mass layoffs as the first day of the shutdown began, while Vice President JD Vance insisted “no final decisions have been made”.

US manufacturing activity edged up in September, but new orders and employment remained weak as factories took a hit from a wide-ranging round of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump.

In Asia – the world’s biggest oil consuming region – manufacturing data continued to raise concerns about fuel demand, as industrial activity contracted in most major economies in September.

Analysts said the market was also focused on disruptions to Russian supplies and exports due to Ukraine’s military actions. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said domestic fuel supplies were generally “under control,” despite shortages in some regions.

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/thi-truong-tien-te/gia-dau-the-gioi-giam-xuong-muc-thap-nhat-4-thang-20251002073329247.htm