Why does Ukraine crave F-16? Is Moscow's warning to Kiev that it is "playing with fire" true or false?

Ukraine is in dire need of F-16 fighter jets from the West in its conflict with Russia. However, it will not be in time for the weapons to appear in Kiev's long-awaited counter-offensive.

Tại sao F-16 không phải là “phép màu” cho Ukraine?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is lobbying Western allies to provide F-16 fighter jets. (Source: AP)

The necessary upgrade

For months, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been lobbying Western allies to supply his country with F-16 fighter jets, claiming their “historic” delivery would “significantly strengthen” Kiev’s forces.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin has condemned the proposal, calling it a huge risk and saying countries providing aircraft or training Ukrainian troops, including Britain, were “playing with fire”.

Like the HIMARS missile launcher, Leopard tanks and Patriot missiles before it, the F-16s have become a symbol of Western support, which Ukrainians say will provide the strength to push back Russian forces.

According to military experts, the appearance of these new fighter jets will be a much-needed upgrade for the Ukrainian army in the confrontation with Russia's superior air force.

However, they also warned that it would take months to complete the integration of the new weapons into the Ukrainian military's systems, meaning the new fighters are unlikely to play any significant role in the Eastern European country's long-awaited counter-offensive this year.

Of all the surprises Kiev's forces have pulled off over the past 15 months, their ability to counter Russian airpower would be one of the biggest.

Russia's superior fighter jets are expected to quickly destroy Ukraine's aging fleet, giving Moscow the upper hand in conducting air strikes at will.

On the contrary, the Ukrainian air force remains steadfast, while Russian aircraft operating in Ukraine constantly face the risk of being shot down by surface-to-air missiles, even though the Ukrainian air force has suffered heavy losses and the balance of power is still unfavorable for Ukraine.

Ukrainian pilots revealed that they had to fly fighter jets, such as MiG-29s, at low, dangerous altitudes to avoid more powerful Russian fighters and their formidable air defense systems.

This limits their ability to conduct airstrikes on Russian positions. They also report being outnumbered by Russia's Su-35s and R-37 missiles, which have superior ranges.

As a result, Kiev has suffered serious losses in pilots and aircraft. Colonel Volodymyr Lohachov, head of the Ukrainian Air Force’s aviation development department, told the press earlier this month that “our pilots are flying on a knife’s edge.”

Not a miracle

Last week, retired RAF General Edward Stringer told the Financial Times : “The F-16 is not a miracle, but a symbol of a more balanced conflict.”

“I don’t think the F-16s will give Ukraine air superiority in and of themselves, and I don’t think that’s their purpose,” said Gareth Jennings, an aviation expert at Janes, a defence intelligence firm. “Instead, they will allow Kiev to keep the Russian air force at as far a distance as possible.”

The US-made F-16 “Fighting Falcon” first entered service with the US air force in 1980.

The single-seat fighter aircraft built for both air-to-air and air-to-ground combat has become popular with militaries around the world .

Currently, many countries have removed and sold off their F-16s to replace them with more modern aircraft such as the F-35.

But according to some experts, the F-16 is still a “quantum leap” compared to what the Ukrainian air force currently possesses. Besides, their combat effectiveness will depend on which type of F-16 is provided.

Even though the F-16 system has been upgraded by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in recent years with electronic systems and internal radar, some aviation analysts still warn that if Ukraine is only provided with older versions of the F16, they will still be surpassed by the newest Russian aircraft.

Commenting that the West will provide Kiev with outdated aid, Mr. Douglas Barrie, senior expert on military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), said: "The weapons and equipment that Western countries have provided to Ukraine are not so 'outdated' that they are useless, but are quite new."

Also crucial will be the type of weapons provided. Providing longer-range air-to-air missiles than the AIM-120 would help support Ukrainian forces in the long term, Barrie said.

The F-16s can also be equipped with JDAM precision-guided bombs and HARM anti-radiation missiles designed to enhance air defense capabilities. Both of these weapons have been delivered to Ukraine.

However, according to Justin Bronk of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), even with these features, the F-16 still needs to be wary of Russia's air defense system, which means the fighters have to fly close to the ground when near the front line, which will reduce their effectiveness.

So how quickly all this can be done is the biggest question. Pilot training alone is estimated to take at least four months, with some forecasting even longer.

Ukraine will also need mechanics, ground support and logistics. Using Western contractors might save time, but it is a mission of the utmost importance. It means the F-16s are unlikely to play a role in any imminent counter-offensive.

Barrie said that if a counter-offensive were to be launched in the near future, Ukraine would have to use all of its air power. Therefore, the greatest effect of the F-16s would probably be in the medium and long term, as an important guarantee for Ukraine's future.

Kiev has long said that regardless of the outcome of the campaign to retake the territory, Ukraine needs a NATO-standard military force to defend the country in the long term.

Many see US President Joe Biden's decision to allow allies to export F-16s as an acknowledgment that Kiev's concerns are valid and that Washington is willing to do so.

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