Bitcoin breaks $125,000 mark, risk of stock depletion on exchanges

(Dan Tri) - Bitcoin price hits new peak as stock on the exchange drops to record low. Limited supply combined with institutional capital flows causes the market to heat up like never before.

Bitcoin just set a new record when it surpassed the $125,500 mark on October 5, bringing the market capitalization to $2,500 billion. The increase occurred right in the first days of October, which investors called “Uptober”, showing that a new growth cycle is forming.

Not only did this breakout create a market euphoria, it also confirmed the intrinsic strength of bitcoin after the correction period. However, what is really remarkable is not just the number on the chart, but the powerful forces converging behind it.

Bitcoin just broke a new peak of $125,000, becoming the 7th largest asset globally (Photo: Bitcoin Insider).

Historic "supply squeeze": Are exchanges about to run out of stock?

One of the most alarming signals for bears and good news for bitcoin holders is that the amount of BTC held on centralized exchanges (CEX) has fallen to a record low.

According to data from Glassnode, the total amount of Bitcoin stored on exchanges is only 2.83 million BTC - the lowest number since June 2019. Notably, at that time, Bitcoin was still trading around $ 8,000 in the midst of a gloomy bear market. Analytics platform CryptoQuant gave an even lower figure of just 2.45 million BTC, equivalent to a 7-year low.

In just the past two weeks, more than 114,000 BTC, worth the equivalent of $14 billion, has been withdrawn from exchanges.

In business terms, this is a classic sign of a “supply squeeze.” When bitcoins are withdrawn from exchanges and moved to self-custody cold wallets or institutional treasuries, it signals a long-term investment mentality. The amount of bitcoin available for trading (supply) is becoming increasingly scarce, while demand continues to increase. When “demand exceeds supply,” prices inevitably rise.

This fact has been confirmed by many experts in the industry. Mr. Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, frankly said: "I've heard that exchanges are running out of bitcoin these days."

Investor Mike Alfred offers an even more dramatic perspective from the OTC desks (where “whales” often trade directly off the floor): “I just spoke with the head of a large OTC desk. He said that at this rate, they will run out of bitcoin to sell in about 2 hours after the futures market opens, unless the price bounces back to the $126,000-$129,000 range. Things are getting extremely chaotic.”

Institutional capital flows return and favorable macro expectations

If the "supply squeeze" is a supply story, the demand story is also becoming equally exciting, especially from institutional investors.

According to CoinGape, last week saw a net inflow of $3.24 billion into spot bitcoin ETFs - the highest level of the year. This is a clear indication that confidence and interest from the traditional financial world is returning strongly. This large inflow is one of the most important engines, creating enough buying power to push Bitcoin price above important resistance levels.

In addition, macroeconomic factors are also "carpeting" for the rise of bitcoin. The market is almost certain (with a probability of 97%) that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points at the upcoming FOMC meeting. The reason comes from signs of weakening labor market, forcing the Fed to loosen monetary policy to support the economy.

In a low-interest-rate environment, non-yielding assets like bitcoin and gold (which don’t generate natural cash flow like interest or dividends) become more attractive than keeping money in savings. The rally to $124,400 in August was also fueled by this expectation, and now the story is repeating itself on a larger scale.

The Uptober Effect and the "burning" of short sellers

Finally, there is the psychological factor. The breakout has burned a large amount of short positions - those who bet that the price will fall. Data from CoinGlass shows that in the past 24 hours, $148 million in derivatives positions were liquidated, of which $132 million belonged to the sellers. The liquidation of short positions forced traders to buy back bitcoin to close their positions, inadvertently creating an additional push for the price.

Looking ahead, analysts are extremely optimistic. Analyst Rekt Capital believes that if bitcoin can convincingly hold above $126,500, a much faster and stronger rally is entirely possible. More daring predictions have even begun to mention a target of $200,000 before the end of 2025.

Bitcoin has proven once again that it is not just a speculative asset, but is being reinforced by the fundamental economic principles of supply and demand, along with the growing acceptance of smart capital. Uptober is just the beginning and the story of new market peaks is likely to be far from over.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/bitcoin-pha-moc-125000-usd-nguy-co-can-kiet-hang-tren-san-giao-dich-20251005142418084.htm