GDP growth forecast could reach 8.3-8.5% in positive scenario

Vietnam's GDP is forecast to grow by 8-8.2% for the whole year of 2025 (baseline scenario) or more optimistically, around 8.3-8.5% (positive scenario). Photo: Hai Nguyen

Despite increasing fluctuations both domestically and internationally, Vietnam's economic growth has shown resilience, thanks to supportive policies. Before the results of the first 9 months of 2025, many international organizations forecasted positively about Vietnam's GDP growth in 2025.

In late September, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) raised its forecast for Vietnam's economic growth to 6.7% in 2025, due to positive export and FDI activities despite reciprocal tariffs from the US.

Mr. Nguyen Ba Hung - ADB economic expert assessed that the forecast increase was based on many positive factors of the economy in the first months of the year. In particular, export activities and foreign investment continued to increase, despite the impact of US tariffs.

Previously, UOB Bank also raised its forecast for Vietnam's GDP this year to 7.5%, up 0.6% from the previous level. Meanwhile, the World Bank (WB) said that economic growth for the whole year could reach 6.6%, thanks to the strong growth (7.5%) in the first half of the year.

According to Dr. Can Van Luc and the authors of BIDV Training and Research Institute, with positive growth results in the first 9 months of the year and relatively competitive tariffs, institutional breakthroughs, continued improvement in the investment and business environment; growth drivers (both traditional and new) are exploited..., it is forecasted that Vietnam's economy can grow by 8-8.2% for the whole year of 2025 (baseline scenario) or more optimistically, about 8.3-8.5% (positive scenario). Accordingly, to achieve a growth rate of 8-8.2% for the whole year of 2025 or higher, in the fourth quarter of 2025, GDP growth needs to reach at least about 8.4-8.8%.

Regarding inflation, in the fourth quarter of 2025, inflationary pressure may increase more strongly due to both cost-push factors (higher prices of imported goods due to US tariffs, increased prices of State-managed goods) and demand-pull factors (credit growth is estimated at 18-20%, cash turnover at 0.7-0.8 times, higher than in 2024 to meet capital needs for higher growth).

However, the average CPI in 2025 is forecast at 3.8-4%, higher than in 2024 (3.63%) but still below the National Assembly's target (4.5%) thanks to the combined impact of factors supporting inflation control, ensuring the supply of essential domestic goods and services; stable exchange rates and basic interest rates, and increasingly better policy coordination.

To achieve the above growth target, BIDV Training and Research Institute proposes to effectively implement the strategic policies of the Politburo; thoroughly overcome difficulties and obstacles in the operation of two-level local governments; accelerate substantial improvements in the investment and business environment; and proactively and flexibly adapt to the US tariff policy.

Effectively implement policies to stimulate consumption; renew traditional growth drivers and strongly promote new growth drivers. Improve efficiency in policy management and coordination, especially monetary, fiscal and other macroeconomic policies. Finally, accelerate economic restructuring, focusing on improving growth quality.

Laodong.vn

Source: https://laodong.vn/kinh-doanh/du-bao-tang-truong-gdp-co-the-dat-83-85-o-kich-ban-tich-cuc-1591836.ldo