Real estate prices are easy to increase and difficult to decrease, forecasting 2 market scenarios in 2025, the new land price list in Hanoi will have a chain reaction

Real estate prices are unlikely to decrease, experts predict two market scenarios for 2025, the new land price list in Hanoi will have a chain reaction, activating housing price levels... are the latest real estate news.

In the next 2-3 years, the real estate market will become clearer with significant changes, including price fluctuations and adjustments in demand from both investors and home buyers. (Photo: Anh Phuong)

Supply increases, real estate prices still difficult to decrease

The supply of newly opened apartments in 2024 will reach about 35,000 units, higher than the previous forecast of 22,000 - 24,000 units. In 2025, this number is forecast to increase to 40,000 apartments for both major markets of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. However, experts generally say that even though the supply will increase significantly, it will still be difficult to "cool down" real estate prices.

Forecasting the real estate market in 2025, CEO of CBRE Vietnam Duong Thuy Dung said that housing prices will not decrease but will not increase as rapidly as in the recent period. The increase may be from 5 - 8% compared to 2024. How to have a price that is suitable for people's ability to pay continues to be a difficult question, a big challenge for the market that currently has no answer.

According to Ms. Dung's analysis, the apartment price index in Hanoi increased by 64% compared to the second quarter of 2019, double the increase in Ho Chi Minh City. The average primary selling price approached 60 million VND/m2.

Sharing the same view, Associate Professor, Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh - economic expert commented that 2024 is the time when the Hanoi apartment segment will witness a rapid increase in prices. Apartment prices have increased from an average of 40 million VND/m2 in 2022 to more than 70 million VND/m2 by the end of the third quarter of 2024. Notably, the market no longer has projects priced below 60 million VND/m2, many mid-range projects even have prices above 100 million VND/m2.

During the hot periods, the selling price tends to increase day by day, week by week but liquidity remains high. The pent-up demand for housing and investment has been released when there are many incentives to restore the confidence of customers and investors in the market. The booming demand, while the supply is still scarce, has pushed prices up.

Experts say that although the price increase in Hanoi apartments has slowed down, it will be difficult to reduce selling prices in 2025 due to increased input land costs. In fact, the Hanoi market is following the growth scenario of Ho Chi Minh City. In the next 2-3 years, the real estate market will become clearer with significant changes, including price fluctuations and adjustments in demand from both investors and home buyers. It is forecasted that all primary supply in Hanoi in 2025 will be in the high-end and luxury segments; of which luxury accounts for 36%.

From a business perspective, Mr. Ngo Huu Truong - Deputy General Director of Hung Thinh Corporation said that real estate prices will be difficult to decrease in the coming period. One of the reasons is that the project approval process often takes a long time, increasing investment costs.

Regarding real estate prices, Vice President of the Vietnam Real Estate Association Nguyen Van Dinh also commented that from now until the end of 2025, the provisions of the new law have not been fully applied but are still being exploited from the old problem. Therefore, land prices are expected to remain at a reasonable level. However, in the period of 2026 - 2027, if there is still no appropriate adjustment from now until then, more pressure will be "pushed" on prices.

According to Mr. Dinh, there will be two scenarios for the real estate market. If there is good regulation, the market will continue to be stable in 2026 - 2027. But if there is no good technical adjustment, real estate prices may be pushed to higher, more unreasonable levels. And then, the market will be difficult again.

The market has gone through its most difficult period.

The Ministry of Construction has just announced 10 highlights of the construction industry in 2024. In particular, 2024 marks a milestone in terms of growth, reaching about 7.8-8.2%, the highest since 2020, exceeding the target assigned by the Government in Resolution No. 01 (6.4-7.3%).

This is also the highest growth rate achieved by the Construction industry since 2020, which is the driving force for the overall GDP growth of the economy. The urbanization rate reached 44.3%, exceeding the target assigned by the National Assembly of 43.7%. The Construction industry also achieved two other targets assigned by the Government, including: Wastewater collection and treatment rate of 18% and average housing area nationwide of 26.5 m2 floor area/person.

Assessing the real estate market last year, the Ministry of Construction said that many synchronous solutions were implemented to remove difficulties for the market. The Prime Minister's working group on removing difficulties and obstacles in implementing real estate projects worked with localities and real estate enterprises to grasp information, situations and review each specific project to discuss, guide and answer to remove difficulties and obstacles in implementation.

"The real estate market has had positive changes, overcoming the most difficult period to gain momentum for recovery and development," the Ministry of Construction emphasized.

Another highlight of the past year was the special attention paid to the development of social housing. On May 24, the Secretariat issued Directive No. 34 on strengthening the Party's leadership in the development of social housing in the new situation.

The Ministry of Construction is submitting to the Government a draft Resolution on preferential capital sources for social housing development. Accordingly, it proposes to implement a preferential package of VND100,000 billion for social housing loans from bond capital, applicable for 5 years. The above efforts will be the premise for the development of social housing nationwide to accelerate in the coming time.

Impact of Hanoi's new land price list

According to the recently issued and effective land price list of Hanoi from December 20, 2024, land prices in some areas in Hanoi are 2-6 times higher than the land price list issued from 2019. In particular, the highest land price belongs to some roads in Hoan Kiem district when it reaches nearly 700 million VND/m2.

Some opinions say that Hanoi's application of a new land price list could cause housing prices to continue to increase.

A report by the Ministry of Construction shows that if the 2024 land price table is applied, the land use costs of real estate projects will increase significantly compared to before. The reason is that the main costs affecting housing and real estate prices include: site clearance compensation costs, land use fees, project construction costs such as housing, real estate, taxes, related fees...

In particular, costs related to land use fees often account for a large proportion of the total cost of a housing project, ranging from 7-20% for high-rise apartment projects and 25-50% for villa and townhouse projects.

According to the Ministry of Construction, the application of the new land price list will have a chain reaction, triggering a 15-20% increase in real estate and housing prices compared to before.

Mr. Vu Cuong Quyet, General Director of Dat Xanh Mien Bac, said that for businesses, having a land price list will support the steps to appraise land prices closely following market prices. The adjusted land price list is an important basis for businesses to determine land taxes.

However, if land tax is determined according to market price, the land use conversion tax of enterprises will be higher, thereby the output real estate selling price for buyers will be higher.

Can I sell an apartment that is being paid in installments under the new regulations?

Buying an apartment in installments is a trend that many people prefer to own a house without having to spend a large amount of money right away. So what regulations must be met when buying an apartment in installments?

The purchase and sale of apartments by installment payment is regulated in Article 167 of the 2023 Housing Law as follows:

- Agreed upon by the parties and clearly stated in the home purchase contract.

- During the period of installment payment, the apartment buyer is allowed to use and is responsible for maintenance, unless otherwise agreed or during the apartment's warranty period.

In particular, Clause 2, Article 167 of the 2023 Housing Law affirms: The home buyer who pays in installments or in installments may only conduct transactions of buying, selling, donating, exchanging, mortgaging, or contributing capital to this home with another person after having fully paid for the home, unless the parties have another agreement.

According to this regulation, if the buyer of an apartment currently paying in installments wants to sell it to someone else, he/she must pay the full purchase price to the seller, unless the parties have another agreement.

Thus, if buying an apartment by paying in installments with the investor or paying in installments to the seller, only when paying the full amount of the apartment purchase price, the buyer is allowed to sell it to another person unless the parties have another agreement.

Similarly, when mortgaging a bank installment loan, if you want to sell it to someone else, according to Clause 5, Article 321 of the 2015 Civil Code, the mortgagor can sell the apartment mortgaged to the bank to someone else if the bank agrees or according to the provisions of law.

Accordingly, if the parties agree or the bank agrees to sell the apartment being paid in installments, the following methods can be used:

- The investor signed the Apartment Sale and Purchase Contract Transfer Document without submitting the application to the State agency to issue the Certificate.

- The parties sign to cancel the old installment purchase contract of the apartment and the seller will directly sign the apartment purchase contract with the new buyer (if the old buyer has not transferred the Red Book) or establish a written agreement on the sale of the apartment in installments between three parties: the old buyer, the seller and the new buyer.

- Make a three-party agreement between the bank, buyer, and seller that the bank agrees to sell the apartment being paid in installments to another person. At the same time, release the mortgage on the property, re-sign the sales contract, and transfer the Red Book to the new buyer.

In this case, the parties may transfer the bank's loan obligation to another person in accordance with the provisions of Article 370 of the 2015 Civil Code.

Thus, the buyer can sell the apartment being paid in installments if there is the consent of the seller according to the above analysis or when the installment has been paid in full or according to the agreement of the parties.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/bat-dong-san-gia-dia-oc-de-tang-kho-giam-du-bao-2-kich-ban-thi-truong-nam-2025-bang-gia-dat-moi-o-ha-noi-se-co-tac-dong-day-chuyen-299222.html