Vietnam Officially Upgraded - Opportunity For Retail Consumer Stocks

Analysts at SSI Research forecast that Masan shares (HOSE: MSN) could attract about 98 million USD in foreign capital inflows in the post-upgrade period.

Market upgrade and potential foreign capital wave

After many years of preparation, Vietnam was officially upgraded from a frontier market to an emerging market by FTSE Russell in the assessment period announced on the morning of October 8, 2025 (Vietnam time), expected to take effect from the classification period of September 2026 after being reviewed in March 2026. This is an important milestone, opening up opportunities to attract billions of dollars in capital flows from ETFs, passive funds and international active capital flows. According to SSI Research, the total amount of ETF capital that can be poured into Vietnam is up to 1 billion USD in the upcoming portfolio restructuring periods. However, in the short term, capital flows still depend on global macro fluctuations and investors' expectations for the emerging market group.

In that context, stocks with solid fundamentals and high liquidity such as Masan (HOSE: MSN) are considered to be the direct beneficiaries. With a capitalization of over VND 121,000 billion (~USD 4.5 billion), foreign room of over 70% and an integrated consumer-retail ecosystem, MSN is a strong candidate to be included in the global index basket. SSI Research forecasts that MSN shares could attract about USD 98 million in foreign capital in the first phase after the upgrade.

Solid consumer-retail ecosystem, forecast to complete 90% of annual profit plan

The difference that helps MSN maintain its long-term appeal to investors is its business model linked to essential consumer needs, a sustainable growth sector in Vietnam. Currently, MSN owns a closed integrated consumer-retail ecosystem from production to distribution, including Masan Consumer (UpCom: MCH), WinCommerce (WCM), Masan MEATLife (UpCom: MML) and Phuc Long Heritage (PLH). In particular, WCM holds the leading position in the modern retail market share with more than 4,200 stores, creating a superior advantage in product distribution for MCH and MML.

According to information from the enterprise, in the first 9 months of 2025, Masan (HOSE: MSN) is estimated to achieve profit after tax before minority interests (NPAT Pre-MI) exceeding 90% compared to the base scenario profit plan for 2025. This result shows that Masan is on track, with room to make a breakthrough in the fourth quarter, the peak consumption period at the end of the year, thereby strengthening the prospect of completing and possibly exceeding the full-year target.

The key driver comes from WinCommerce (WCM) - a retail chain with more than 4,200 stores nationwide, of which 75% are newly opened in rural areas. WCM recorded revenue of more than VND25,000 billion (+16.1% over the same period) in the first 8 months of the year, with August alone reaching VND3,573 billion (+24.2%). This result reflects the strong resilience of domestic consumption and the effectiveness of the modern retail model.

Masan MEATLife (MML), a member company of the Masan ecosystem, also maintained positive growth after the restructuring period. In August 2025, MML sold 14,007 tons of products (+12.9%), with revenue reaching VND999 billion (+11.1%), and profit after tax increasing by 60.5% to VND35 billion. EBIT and EBITDA indicators both improved, showing that operational efficiency and profit margins are being consolidated. This is evidence of the trend of consumers shifting to branded, safe and transparent products.

In addition, Masan High-Tech Materials benefits from the recovery in tungsten prices, while Phuc Long continues to boost sales and improve customer experience. Masan Consumer is expected to recover strongly from 2026 when the FMCG market stabilizes.

Consolidating position in the post-upgrade period

These positive business results not only strengthen MSN's position as a leading consumer-retail enterprise, but also create a solid foundation for MSN shares to become more attractive in the eyes of domestic and international investors.

On the stock exchange, MSN stock code also maintains its position in the largest capitalization group of HOSE and has stable liquidity in the top VN30, ensuring the ability to absorb capital flows of billions of USD. Notably, the restructuring of shareholders in recent years has significantly improved the free float ratio, making the stock more suitable for the selection criteria of global index baskets. According to SSI Research, this is also the reason why MSN is considered one of the retail businesses that can directly benefit from capital flows when the market is upgraded.

Valuations from securities companies also reinforced analysts’ confidence. BVSC estimated MSN’s fair value at around VND106,000/share; VCBS recommended BUY, targeting ~VND109,000/share, significantly higher than the current price range; and VCI set a target of VND101,000/share, emphasizing the advantages of its network expansion strategy and product portfolio optimization. These positive assessments reflect investors’ expectations of Masan’s long-term growth prospects, especially as Vietnam enters the post-upgrade phase.

Source: https://www.masangroup.com/vi/news/masan-news/Vietnam-Officially-Upgraded-A-New-Opportunity-for-Consumer-and-Retail-Stocks.html