Where do the gifts come from or who decides the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine?

Worried about the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict, many people expect President Donald Trump to urge all sides to freeze the war and sit at the negotiating table.

Will the White House boss create a miracle and “give Russia a gift”? What is the path to negotiations? It is difficult to fully answer such a big and complex question, but we can outline a few things.

Will US President Donald Trump urge all sides to freeze the war and sit at the negotiating table? (Source: Getty)

The tip of the iceberg

The conflict in Ukraine is the tip of a huge “iceberg”. There is and will be controversy about the cause and nature of the conflict. However, the statements of some leaders and the actions of EU and NATO members show their goals and intentions. Although they try to avoid operating under the name of the bloc, NATO is the author and director of the “Eastern strategy” scenario to encircle, isolate, weaken and disintegrate Russia. They have launched many “below the belt” attacks.

Kiev is the key piece in the game that NATO and the West have worked hard to create. The Ukraine problem was sparked by the Maidan protests more than 10 years ago. The government and the people can justify their choices, but the consequences cannot be hidden. Change is not wrong, but what matters is for whom and how. In fact, the countries where “color revolutions” took place have all fallen into prolonged instability, even civil war.

For Russia, a special military operation is imperative for national security and survival. The name of the military operation partly shows that Moscow did not fully anticipate its complexity and length. With the element of surprise, in the first weeks, the Russian army created an overwhelming position at important targets and around the capital Kiev. But when Moscow withdrew its troops, creating an environment for negotiations in Istanbul, Turkey, the British Prime Minister's influence caused the effort to collapse. The Minsk II-style delaying tactic was repeated.

In essence, the conflict in Ukraine is a complex, comprehensive war on security, economics, technology, politics , diplomacy, media, and law between the EU and NATO and Russia. The conflict raises many issues regarding defense strategy, military art, weapons and means, etc. that need to be changed. Moscow also seeks to connect, cooperate, and upgrade relations with allies and partners. To some extent, the conflict is a concrete manifestation of the collision between the unipolar world order dominated by the US and the West (with adaptive adjustments) and the trend of seeking a new, more equitable order.

The conflict in Ukraine touches on major geopolitical issues, competition for interests, relations between major countries, NATO's "Eastward strategy"... Therefore, ending the conflict cannot just be aimed at the surface, over a few weeks or months, but must be done step by step, solving the root cause, the "whole package" between Russia and the West, NATO led by the US.

In essence, the conflict in Ukraine is a complex, comprehensive war on security, economics, technology, politics, diplomacy , media, and law between the EU and NATO and Russia.

Economic colors are increasingly clear

Kiev is and will be heavily dependent on the West, so as the conflict continues, some countries are thinking long-term. “The first money is the smart money.” On January 16, the UK signed a “hundred-year agreement” with Ukraine, demonstrating London’s steadfast, long-term support for Kiev. Strong security and military cooperation with an aid level of no less than £3 billion/year for as long as necessary, to keep Kiev on its toes against Russia, internal reactions and in the arms of London. The UK’s long-term, multifaceted presence in Ukraine comes with attractive economic benefits.

The US is the biggest beneficiary. Behind the aid package is the huge profit from the arms supply contract, a special non-negotiable commodity (President Volodymyr Zelensky has confirmed). President Donald Trump also made no secret of his request for Kiev to provide rare minerals (lithium, titanium, beryllium, uranium...) in exchange for further arms aid from Washington. Kiev had previously included this factor in its "victory plan". However, a significant part of the resources is in the area controlled by Russia.

Once the profits are high, the West will not give up any measures to win them. However, the agreement, the exchange agreement between the US, the West and Kiev also depends on the political-social model, the future institutions of Ukraine. The economy is a bargaining chip in solving the Ukraine problem.

The site of a Russian missile attack on a residential building in Poltava, central Ukraine, which killed 11 people and injured 16. (Source: EPA)

America does not give up, what can and should be done?

The US initiated and led NATO’s “Eastern strategy”, through the tools and involvement of the “European army” to weaken the opponent, maintain its role and global strategic interests. Therefore, Washington did not let go of the Ukraine issue but resolved it in its own way, low cost but highly effective in many aspects.

By resolving the Ukraine conflict, the greatest benefit for the US is to maintain its role as a “security umbrella” in Europe; its position as the number one peace negotiator and to have a free hand in dealing with China, a systemic, comprehensive rival that challenges the number one position, but is always difficult to deal with. What does Washington need and can do?

Moscow believes that Washington needs to take concrete action and plans. According to revelations, the US advocates suspending the issue of Ukraine joining NATO; maintaining the status quo on the battlefield, freezing the war, withdrawing troops from some areas; lifting the embargo on Russia for 3 years, after signing a peace agreement. There is news that the US and the West are considering a plan to replace Kiev's leadership.

If the US and the West really stop providing aid, even with conditions, it will still be a beneficial catalyst to resolve the Ukraine issue. But Kiev will find it difficult to stand firm and ensure the long-term strategic interests of the US in Ukraine. So Washington should not tie its own hands, but stick to conditions that Moscow will find difficult to accept or continue providing aid in other forms.

But the US cannot decide everything on its own, and cannot do whatever it wants. The view that Russia is weak and will have to make concessions when faced with difficulties is not solidly based. How far Moscow can compromise is a difficult question.

“Gift-for-Gift” Concessions and What Is the Decisive Factor?

Russia welcomes the idea of ​​negotiating a solution to the conflict. It is a positive factor, but it is not a gift from President Donald Trump, but an exchange of “he gives a ham, she gives a bottle of wine”. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova affirmed that Moscow does not accept a half-hearted solution of “freezing the conflict” (which is essentially a delaying tactic) but seeks a comprehensive, concrete, legally binding solution.

The decisive factor in the outcome of the negotiations is still the favorable battlefield situation for Russia; the ability to sustain the economy, maintain social stability and expand and improve the quality of connections and cooperation with Moscow's allies and partners. Despite many difficulties, Russia is not in a hurry. Progress slowly, slowly but surely. Persistence is also the art of fighting with intelligence.

President Volodymyr Zelensky wants four-way negotiations (if they take place), but the key figures are representatives of the US and Russia. Moscow still maintains the conditions declared since the launch of the special military operation as well as in the nearly successful agreement in Istanbul, Türkiye in April 2022; asking the US and the West to completely lift sanctions, establish fair relations with Russia, including issues of trade, technology, energy, gas pipelines...

This type of conflict is complex, multi-sided, and protracted, and usually ends at the negotiating table. A summit between President Donald Trump and President Vladimir Putin (as early as February or March) is expected to be the start of progress. The two sides will argue and bargain over core issues, many of which are as different as they have stated. It is unlikely that there will be a major consensus, but it could open up a direction for the next steps.

In any case, accepting to meet, discuss relations, and negotiate a solution to the conflict is also a breakthrough. The battle on the conference table will be extremely fierce, complicated, long-term, and unpredictable, and the core is the level of compromise. What Moscow is likely to give up is a multi-party security mechanism including Russia (not accepting NATO peacekeeping forces), for a new government in neutral Ukraine. President Donald Trump is a veteran negotiator. Let's see how far the US will go.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/qua-den-tu-dau-hay-ai-quyet-dinh-ket-cuc-xung-dot-o-ukraine-303650.html