In the first nine months of 2025, Ho Chi Minh City's economy recorded many positive signs with an impressive growth rate of 7.07%. However, to reach the growth target of 8.5% as assigned by the Central Government, Ho Chi Minh City needs to achieve a breakthrough growth rate of 12.4% in the fourth quarter.
Speaking with Ho Chi Minh City Law , MSc. Nguyen Truc Van, Director of the Center for Socio-Economic Simulation and Forecasting under the Ho Chi Minh City Institute for Development Studies, said that this is a big challenge in the context of many fluctuations in the world and domestic economy.
Many highlights
Looking at the socio-economic picture of Ho Chi Minh City in the past nine months, Master Nguyen Truc Van said that the city has made great efforts and has received encouraging results when the economic growth rate reached 7.07%, with the third quarter alone increasing remarkably at 8.11%, higher than the first and second quarters.
"This is an important premise for Ho Chi Minh City to strive to achieve the growth target of 8.5% for the whole year of 2025 as assigned by the Central Government" - Ms. Van said.
At the same time, the growth drivers of Ho Chi Minh City also have many marks when in terms of total supply, the economic sectors of the city all achieved high growth rates, notably the commercial sector reaching 8.59%, the industrial - construction sector also reaching 5.35%.
Regarding total demand, total retail sales of goods and consumer services increased dramatically by 15.3% over the same period. Export turnover increased by 5.5%; import increased by 7.1%, reflecting that businesses are boosting imports to serve domestic production and consumption.
At the same time, total social investment capital in the city is estimated at more than 465,000 billion VND, an increase of 10.3%; budget revenue reached 570,000 billion VND, equal to about 85% of the estimate assigned by the Central Government.
According to Ms. Van, Ho Chi Minh City's investment environment continues to improve as it has resolved obstacles for 658/838 projects; attracting FDI reaching nearly 7.73 billion USD.
Besides the remarkable bright spots in the socio-economic picture of Ho Chi Minh City, Master Nguyen Truc Van also predicted challenges in the last three months of the year.
Domestically, although the country's GDP in the first nine months is estimated to increase by about 7.85%, international organizations, especially the World Bank, forecast Vietnam's full-year growth to be only about 6.6% due to the impact of geopolitical conflicts and US tariff policies. These factors will affect the import-export trade activities of the country in general and Ho Chi Minh City in particular.
Meanwhile, in Ho Chi Minh City, the number of newly established enterprises continued to decrease by 13.9% compared to the same period, the number of temporarily suspended enterprises increased by 11.1%, and the number of dissolved enterprises increased by 15.4%. In particular, the city's public investment disbursement has not yet met expectations and the process of perfecting the organizational apparatus still faces many difficulties.
“However, Ho Chi Minh City is still very determined with the growth target of 8.5%” – Master Nguyen Truc Van emphasized.
Focus on social investment capital
With the determination to achieve the above challenging target, MSc. Nguyen Truc Van, Director of the Center for Socio-Economic Simulation and Forecasting under the Ho Chi Minh City Institute for Development Studies, said that the tasks for the remaining three months will be very urgent, requiring great efforts and determination from the entire government system, businesses and people. And, the target for the fourth quarter is to grow by 12.4%.
To achieve this goal, Ms. Van said that it is necessary to focus on total social investment capital, first of all, it is necessary to promote public investment disbursement, striving to disburse 100% of the assigned plan because this is the most important growth driver; prioritize completing key projects such as Ring Road 3 in December 2025, starting construction of main items of Metro Line 2. At the same time, it is necessary to transfer capital from slow projects to projects with high disbursement capacity.
Ho Chi Minh City should also restructure public spending, reduce regular spending, increase development investment, and prevent loss and waste.
Ms. Nguyen Truc Van especially emphasized on solving difficulties for enterprises by reducing 30% of the time for processing administrative procedures, implementing the "green forest" mechanism for high-tech FDI projects; organizing regular dialogues with enterprises to promptly resolve problems. Thereby, improving the business environment, supporting small enterprises through tax reduction policies, preferential loans, helping to reduce inventory and bad debt.
In addition, Ho Chi Minh City needs to stimulate consumption and tourism by implementing year-end consumer stimulus programs, developing night tourism products and experiential tourism; and promoting digital transformation in trade and services.
Regarding the fluctuations of the world economy, the Director of the Center for Socio-Economic Simulation and Forecasting said that Ho Chi Minh City and businesses need to proactively respond to US tariff policies, diversify export markets, and take advantage of free trade agreements (FTAs) such as CPTPP, EVFTA, RCEP, etc.
In addition, the city also needs to build an early warning system for trade risks, control price indexes and inflation, be cautious with credit and the real estate market, and support capital for the production, processing, technology and export sectors.
“I hope that with the determination of Ho Chi Minh City leaders as well as businesses and people, we will overcome challenges and difficulties and reach the finish line” – Ms. Nguyen Truc Van shared.
Optimize resources, activate new dynamics
Ho Chi Minh City Statistics leaders recognized that in order to continue maintaining growth momentum and strive to achieve the growth target for the whole year of 2025, Ho Chi Minh City needs to focus on synchronously implementing key solutions to effectively exploit resources, creating momentum to promote economic growth in the fourth quarter.
According to the leader of the Ho Chi Minh City Statistics Office, the city needs to complete the planning and orientation of strategic areas, pillars of the city's economic development. Optimize the use of existing resources, maximize comparative advantages, strengthen regional connectivity, ensure balanced and sustainable development and create spillover momentum.
Regarding public investment disbursement, it is necessary to focus on key infrastructure projects; review and thoroughly handle difficulties, obstacles and bottlenecks in the implementation process; strengthen inspection and supervision to ensure project progress and quality.
Notably, Ho Chi Minh City Statistics proposed that the city continue to restructure its industrial sector towards modernity, sustainability and high added value. On the basis of expanding its administrative boundaries with many industrial zones, clusters and high-tech zones, Ho Chi Minh City builds preferential policies to attract investment in key industries, supporting industries and high technology.
At the same time, encourage businesses to apply science and technology, digital transformation, artificial intelligence, and automation in production to improve productivity and competitiveness. Orientate industrial development associated with green urban areas, energy saving, emission reduction, and towards a sustainable production-consumption chain.
Equally important, Ho Chi Minh City must build and perfect digital government, improve the quality of public services, and ensure fast, convenient, and effective service for people and businesses in the area.
Continue to maintain and implement appropriate remuneration policies, attract and effectively use high-quality human resources in the public sector, contributing to improving management and operational capacity and building a modern administration.
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In July, at the 2nd session of the 10th term of the Ho Chi Minh City People's Council, Vice Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City People's Committee Nguyen Van Dung affirmed that Ho Chi Minh City is determined to achieve an economic growth target of 8.5% in 2025, despite many challenges in the domestic and international context.
In early September, at a meeting on the socio-economic situation in August and the first eight months of 2025, Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City People's Committee Nguyen Van Duoc said that Ho Chi Minh City strives for 8.5% growth by the end of 2025.
If so, the third and fourth quarters must reach over 10%. The head of the Ho Chi Minh City government acknowledged that this is not easy because 1% growth for Ho Chi Minh City is also a difficult target. However, he suggested that it is necessary to frankly acknowledge the existing problems and make corrections.
Source: https://ttbc-hcm.gov.vn/thoi-co-va-thach-thuc-cho-tang-truong-tp-hcm-nhung-thang-cuoi-nam-2025-1019715.html
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