Vietnam Reaches $5,000 GDP/Capita: Golden Opportunity for the Consumer

According to securities companies, Vietnam is entering a breakthrough phase with per capita income expected to reach 5,000 USD in the coming years. This is an important milestone because when income increases, consumer spending, especially on branded, safe and convenient products, will grow strongly.

MBS Research in a recent report assessed that the modern retail industry will be one of the sectors that will benefit greatly from policies to tighten market management. Specifically, the Government is determined to bring the retail market into a framework: handling serious violations such as the 500 billion VND fake milk line, tightening illegal advertising, and requiring businesses with revenue of over 1 billion VND/year to connect electronic invoices. These measures both ensure transparency and limit smuggled and poor quality goods.

Notably, Hanoi aims to eliminate all flea markets and temporary markets by 2025, which failed in the past due to the need for “convenience, cheapness, and speed”. But now, a modern retail system with clean food, reasonable prices, transparent origins, and integrated online channels has been able to replace them. This policy opens up a “fair playing field” for supermarket chains, convenience stores, and e-commerce.

In that picture, domestic retail and consumer businesses have a clear advantage. Names such as Mobile World (MWG), Vinamilk (VNM), Sabeco (SAB), and especially Masan Group (MSN) are highly appreciated by analysts thanks to their growth rate and attractive valuation.

Launchpad from modern retail and consumer goods

With a population of 100 million and a rapidly growing middle class, Masan Group (HOSE: MSN) is considered by many international financial institutions and securities companies to be the number one consumer-retail representative in Vietnam. The growth momentum comes from the combination of WinCommerce, the company that operates the WinMart supermarket chain, WinMart+/WiN stores with the largest coverage in the country, Masan Consumer (UPCOM: MCH), a leading consumer goods enterprise, and Masan MEATLife (UPCOM: MML), a pioneer in the branded meat industry.

In the first 8 months of the year, WinCommerce opened 415 new stores and all of them were profitable, affirming the effectiveness and appeal of the modern retail model, especially in rural areas. Specifically, 300 new stores opened to serve consumers in rural areas, accounting for nearly 75% of the number of new stores. The Central region has 194 stores, contributing nearly 50% of the number of new stores.

In Masan's branded meat segment, in August 2025, Masan MEATLife recorded positive business results with sales volume reaching 14,007 tons, up 12.9% year-on-year. Net revenue reached VND999 billion, up 11.1%, reflecting stable demand and increasing contributions from modern retail channels. Operational efficiency was significantly improved when EBIT reached VND50 billion, up 42.9% year-on-year, while profit after tax increased sharply to VND35 billion, equivalent to an increase of 60.5%. EBITDA also reached VND90 billion, up 18% year-on-year, showing continued consolidation of profit margins. This result affirms MML's sustainable recovery momentum after the restructuring period, with consistent improvements in both operating scale and financial efficiency.

MEATDeli, produced using European chilled meat technology, is a product favored and trusted by consumers for its superior quality. MEATDeli chilled meat is produced from healthy pigs that meet "3 no" standards and a 3-line quarantine process, ensuring that the product is (1) Disease-free; (2) No lean meat or growth stimulants; (3) No antibiotic residues. In addition, the product has a QR code with clear traceability. This trend shows that consumers increasingly prioritize choosing products with high quality, safety and transparent origin.

Meanwhile, Masan Consumer is going through a short-term adjustment period due to the restructuring of distribution channels and new requirements for invoicing. The company expects to reach VND32,000 billion in revenue in 2025, up 5% year-on-year, and recover strongly from 2026 when the distribution channel is stable and new products are widely available in the market.

According to MBS, Masan's net profit is estimated to grow 44% in 2025 and 40% in 2026, thanks to the rebound from the retail and consumer goods sectors. At the same time, restructuring loans and reducing interest expenses will help improve the net debt/EBITDA ratio significantly, strengthening the financial foundation.

Foreign capital seeks businesses with sustainable growth

In the context of foreign capital continuously searching for “Vietnam growth story”, Masan is considered a leading consumer enterprise. Possessing an integrated retail - consumer ecosystem, the group directly benefits from the trend of shifting to modern retail while also capturing the need to upgrade people's quality of life as income increases.

WinCommerce is a regular touch point for millions of households and an important distribution channel for MCH and MML products. This creates a closed growth cycle: production - distribution - consumption, thereby helping Masan build a distinct competitive advantage in the market.

However, challenges remain, such as fierce competition between domestic and foreign chains, rising operating costs, compliance with new regulations, and changes in consumer habits. Businesses that want to lead the game need to expand their scale while optimizing operations and managing risks.

In that context, with recent positive results, many experts believe that when Vietnam reaches the 5,000 USD GDP/capita mark, Masan has the potential to become a leading consumer stock and a strategic destination for international investors interested in the story of 100 million people and sustainable consumption growth.

Source: https://www.masangroup.com/vi/news/masan-news/Vietnam-Approaches-USD-5000-GDP-per-Capita-A-Golden-Opportunity-for-Consumer-and-Retail.html