Psychological pressure dominated the oil market last week.

Oil prices moved in opposite directions last week, clearly reflecting the mix of economic recovery hopes and global oversupply concerns.

In the short term, oil prices fluctuate within a narrow range of around 60 USD/barrel due to the impact of many factors. Photo: MXV

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), this is a period when the market is strongly influenced by investor psychology, macroeconomic information and geopolitical signals.

After a series of sharp declines earlier in the week, energy markets recovered across the board on Monday. Brent crude oil rose 0.94% to $63.32 a barrel, while WTI rose 1% to $59.49 a barrel, escaping the lowest level in five months.

According to MXV, the main driving force came from positive sentiment after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that the meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will still take place on the sidelines of the APEC Summit. The two sides maintaining dialogue reduces trade risks, promoting capital flows back to the energy group.

In addition, in its October report, OPEC maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth at 1.4 million barrels per day and warned of a possible supply shortage, in contrast to the more cautious forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Meanwhile, China’s oil imports in September rose 3.9% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in consumption, according to the General Administration of Customs of China. These factors helped oil prices regain momentum after a sharp correction, although the increase was modest as the market remained cautious about the volatility in the Middle East.

After a brief recovery, world oil prices weakened again on October 14. Brent crude fell 1.47% to $62.39/barrel, while WTI fell 1.33% to $58.7/barrel – the lowest level since early May.

The decline continued into the session on October 15, when Brent oil lost another 0.77% to 61.91 USD/barrel, while WTI decreased 0.73% to 58.27 USD/barrel.

The main reason is still the concern about global oversupply, when the IEA released a report that global supply in 2025 could increase by 3 million barrels/day, reaching 106.1 million barrels/day, and continue to increase by 2.4 million barrels/day in 2026. Meanwhile, demand growth remains at 700,000 barrels/day, increasing the gap between supply and demand.

In addition, refineries entering the regular maintenance season reduced total input to 81.6 million barrels/day.

At the same time, US-China trade tensions escalated as Beijing tightened rare earth exports, while Washington threatened to impose an additional 100% tax. The prevailing pessimism caused money to leave the energy sector, causing oil prices to plummet. Since October 10, WTI oil prices have repeatedly fallen below the threshold of 60 USD/barrel.

At the same time, Bank of America warned that if trade tensions do not ease soon, Brent oil prices could fall below $50/barrel.

However, MXV believes there is still a short-term support factor as investors expect the US Federal Reserve (FED) to soon lower interest rates to stimulate growth. The probability of the FED cutting interest rates in October has increased to 98%, helping the energy market avoid a sharper decline.

Recorded this morning, October 18, gasoline and oil prices increased slightly, Brent oil increased by 0.23 USD to 61.29 USD/barrel; WTI oil also only increased by 0.08 USD, equivalent to 0.14%, to 57.54 USD/barrel.

However, world oil prices recorded a weekly decrease of nearly 3% and are at their lowest price in about 5.5 months.

According to experts, in the short term, oil prices are likely to fluctuate within a narrow range of around 60 USD/barrel due to the intertwined impact of macroeconomic , geopolitical and monetary policy factors.

Source: https://hanoimoi.vn/ap-luc-tam-ly-chi-phoi-thi-truong-dau-tuan-qua-720119.html