Turning Point of Upgrading and Prospects of International Capital Flows in Vietnam

An Integrated Consumer Ecosystem to Satisfy The Evolving Big Unmet Needs of 100 Million Vietnamese Consumers.

Expectations of an upgrade are putting Vietnamese stocks in the sights of international investors. Besides the expected increase in foreign capital flows, pillar industries such as finance, consumer-retail and infrastructure are considered priority destinations, opening up many new stories about growth prospects.

Market upgrade: a boost for foreign capital flows

Vietnam’s stock market is at a crucial turning point. After a period of rapid growth in capitalization and liquidity, along with reforms in trading mechanisms, information disclosure and payment infrastructure, Vietnam is getting closer to the criteria to be upgraded from frontier to emerging market by FTSE.

The upgrade not only means “changing the label” but also creates a big boost in the ability to access international capital. When listed in global index baskets such as FTSE and in the long term MSCI, Vietnam will be in the sights of a series of passive ETFs and active funds. According to estimates, the capital flow scale can reach more than 11 billion USD if the process goes smoothly. Along with opportunities, the upgrade also comes with higher requirements on transparency, governance and transaction standards. This is a challenge but also a driving force for Vietnamese enterprises to consolidate their foundations, improve competitiveness and reduce long-term capital costs.

In that context, the attention of international investors is often directed towards large-cap stocks with abundant liquidity and the ability to represent the economy . According to SSI Research, MSN is one of the bright candidates that meet these criteria, thanks to its capitalization scale, stable liquidity and rapidly expanding consumer-retail ecosystem. SSI analysts predict that MSN shares can attract 90 million USD from investment capital flows into emerging markets.

Advantages from the consumer - retail ecosystem

The story of Masan (HOSE: MSN) clearly shows how a domestic enterprise can benefit from the upgrading process. In the first half of 2025, the group recorded a consolidated revenue of more than VND37,200 billion and a profit after tax of VND2,602 billion, nearly double compared to the same period and completing more than half of the annual plan. These figures reflect a synchronous improvement across the entire ecosystem, from modern retail, food, animal protein, to fast-moving consumer goods and high-tech materials.

In particular, WinCommerce (WCM) continues to be the main driving force contributing to positive business results. As of August, the WCM chain has opened 415 more stores, 75% of which are in rural areas, an area that accounts for more than 60% of the population but modern retail still has a lot of room. In August alone, revenue reached VND 3,573 billion, up 24.2% over the same period, showing increasingly effective operations.

In addition, in August 2025, Masan MEATLife (UPCOM: MML) recorded positive business results with sales volume reaching 14,007 tons, up 12.9% year-on-year. Net revenue reached VND999 billion, up 11.1%, reflecting stable demand and increasing contributions from modern retail channels. Operational efficiency was significantly improved when EBIT reached VND50 billion, up 42.9% year-on-year, while profit after tax increased sharply to VND35 billion, equivalent to an increase of 60.5%. EBITDA also reached VND90 billion, 18% higher than the same period last year, showing continued consolidation of profit margins. This result affirms MML's sustainable recovery momentum after the restructuring period, with consistent improvements in both operating scale and financial efficiency.

Not only that, Masan Consumer (UPCOM: MCH) continues to maintain its pivotal role in the FMCG industry with a strategy of product innovation and export expansion, helping to offset domestic competitive pressure. Masan High-Tech Materials (HOSE: MSR), despite being affected by fluctuations in global commodity prices, still contributes stably and maintains long-term strategic significance. This coordination shows that Masan does not rely on just one segment, but is balancing between consumption growth, food and technology materials, thereby strengthening the foundation to meet the criteria that international investors are looking for.

However, opportunities come with challenges. To take advantage of international capital flows, Masan needs to maintain steady growth in a fiercely competitive environment and improve governance standards to meet the increasingly stringent expectations of global investors. Short-term fluctuations in stock prices may occur during index restructuring periods, but in the long term, the upgrade will become a catalyst for businesses to strengthen financial discipline, expand their ability to mobilize capital and connect more closely with international markets.

According to BVSC's September 2025 update report, Masan (HOSE: MSN) is assessed to have positive prospects with forecasted revenue in 2025 reaching VND 85,042 billion (+2.2% over the same period) and profit after tax of parent company shareholders reaching VND 3,501 billion (+75.1% over the same period).

BVSC gives an OUTPERFORM recommendation to MSN with a target price of VND106,000/share. Growth drivers mainly come from WinCommerce, Masan MEATLife, Masan High-Tech Materials and Phuc Long, while Masan Consumer is expected to recover from 2026. In addition, external factors such as the possibility of upgrading the stock market and Masan Consumer's transfer of listing to HOSE are also considered catalysts supporting MSN's valuation in the coming period.

Source: https://www.masangroup.com/vi/news/masan-news/Market-Upgrade-and-Prospects-for-International-Capital-in-Vietnam.html