The gender gap at birth is widening.

In 2023, the gender imbalance at birth will remain high, at 112 boys per 100 girls, while the natural ratio is around 105/100.

The General Statistics Office's Population, Labor and Employment Report for the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2023 shows that Vietnam's sex ratio at birth remains high. In 2022, the ratio was 113.7 boys per 100 girls, which is considered serious. In 2020, it was 112.1 and in 2019, it was 111.5 girls per 100 boys.

Previous publications have pointed out that the gender imbalance has a negative impact on the future population structure and the surplus of men. In 2020, the General Statistics Office predicted that Vietnam would have a surplus of 1.5 million men aged 15 to 49 by 2034 and increase to 1.8 million by 2059 if the gender imbalance at birth remains high. The lack of women creates pressure for girls to marry early, which can easily lead to dropping out of school to start a family and increase trafficking of women.

Thua Thien Hue children with handmade toys, April 2023. Photo: Vo Thanh

The average fertility rate of Vietnamese women last year tended to decrease slightly, to 1.96 children per woman. This rate has decreased by half compared to 3.8 children per woman in 1989. The General Statistics Office forecasts that the rate will continue to decrease in the coming time, making the average fertility rate of Vietnam lower than that of Southeast Asia, about 2 children per woman, lower than the replacement rate of 2.1 children.

The average life expectancy of Vietnamese people in 2023 is 73.7, of which men are 71.1 and women are 76.5. This age is lower than that of three countries in the region: Singapore 83, Brunei 78 and Thailand 76. The elderly in Vietnam face many diseases, about 10 years, the healthy life expectancy is only about 64 years, so the quality of life is greatly affected. Vietnam is striving to increase the average life expectancy to 75 with the number of healthy years reaching 68 by 2030.

2023 is also the year that marks the year when Vietnam's population reaches 100.3 million people with a fairly balanced ratio of men and women. Population migration flows, urbanization speed and administrative boundary expansion increase the urban population to 38%, and the rural population to 62%. The declining birth rate will cause the population growth rate to slow down and gradually decrease in the coming time, in 2023 it will be 0.84% ​​while the previous year it was 0.98%.

Elderly people in Hanoi relax by Hoan Kiem Lake, August 2023. Photo: Ngoc Thanh

The "unprecedentedly rapid" aging of the population and the decline in fertility rates have caused Vietnam's population structure to gradually shift towards an increasing proportion of the elderly and a decreasing proportion of young people. The proportion of young people will decrease from 23% in 2020 to 20.9% by the end of 2022, with the number of young workers decreasing by 170,000 each year. This is a major challenge for Vietnam in improving the quality of human resources when integrating into the world economy .

To improve this situation, experts say that more policies are needed to support women during their pregnancy and child-rearing to increase the birth rate. Female workers are under a lot of pressure when balancing work and family care. Specifically, it is necessary to add maternity leave for both fathers and mothers, design flexible working hours for women with young children, ensure jobs after maternity leave, reduce personal income tax and household contributions.

Various support policies have been implemented by various sectors to encourage an increase in fertility. In 2021, the Ministry of Health issued a policy to provide cash or in-kind support to women in low fertility areas who give birth to two children before the age of 35.

Hong Chieu

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