However, according to the ECB's latest assessment, this new payment tool will not shake the foundations of the European banking system, which has been strengthened after years of reform.
In a report published on October 10, the ECB affirmed that the issuance of a digital euro, with an expected maximum holding limit of around 3,000 euros per person, would not pose a significant risk to the liquidity or profitability of commercial banks in the common currency area.
The study, commissioned by the European Parliament, aimed to assess the potential impact of digital currencies on the financial system. The ECB considered two scenarios: “normal”, where the digital euro only acts as a means of payment, and “flight to safety”, where people rush to withdraw money during a crisis.
The results show that, in the baseline scenario, the impact is “very limited”. The liquidity ratios of banks remain above the prescribed level, with only 9 banks recording a slight decline. The impact on profits is also low, with return on equity falling by about 0.1–0.2%.
According to the ECB, the digital euro will be a form of “digital cash” that is secure, free and accessible to all European citizens, even without an internet connection. This is a step to protect the monetary sovereignty of the eurozone against competition from financial technology corporations and privately issued cryptocurrencies.
Some private banks, particularly in France, are concerned about the possibility of mass withdrawals by customers when the digital euro is introduced, but the ECB says this is unlikely to cause major disruption.
The hypothetical scenario shows that, even during the crisis, the total amount of withdrawals would be within safe limits: around 156 billion euros if the limit on cash holdings is 500 euros per person, and a maximum of 699 billion euros if the limit is 3,000 euros per person. This is equivalent to 2.2% of total banking assets or 8.2% of total deposits, much lower than in previous crises: 20.9% in Cyprus in 2013, 25.9% in Greece in 2015, or 6.4% in Belgium in 2023.
The ECB also noted that large-scale withdrawals could occur even without a digital euro, due to the trend of capital flows to stable digital assets (stablecoins) tied to foreign currencies such as the US dollar.
Therefore, the ECB sees a digital euro as a measure to strengthen confidence in the common currency, prevent the risk of “digital dollarization” and ensure the central role of the euro in the global financial system.
According to Mr. Piero Cipollone, member of the ECB Executive Board, if the legal framework is completed by the European Union (EU) by the end of 2026, the digital euro could officially launch in mid-2029.
Since 2023, the ECB has started testing the technological infrastructure, while the EU continues to perfect regulations to ensure transparency, security and fairness in use.
The digital euro is expected to become a symbol of a modern, safe and sustainable Europe, where financial technology develops alongside the stability of the traditional banking system.
The preparation for the launch of the digital euro represents Europe's proactive step in the global race for digital finance. The ECB asserts that this new currency is not intended to replace the existing banking system, but is a supporting tool, helping to increase trust and protect the position of the euro in the digital era, where safety, stability and monetary sovereignty are paramount.
Source: https://vtv.vn/dong-euro-ky-thuat-so-khong-de-doa-he-thong-ngan-hang-chau-au-100251013144818021.htm
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