Forecasting impact scenarios of storm No. 12

(Chinhphu.vn) – Storm No. 12 (FENGSHEN) has the characteristic that when moving into the East Sea, the East Sea is under the influence of cold air. The cold air mass blocks the western part of the storm, making it less likely that the storm will move westward to enter the North or move up to the Chinese region.

Path of storm FENGSHEN on the morning of October 18

The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said: Early on October 18, the tropical depression in the sea east of the Philippines strengthened into a storm, the 24th storm in the Northwest Pacific region and has the international name FENGSHEN (the storm name FENGSHEN was given by China, FENGSHEN in Chinese means god of wind).

As of 7:00 a.m. this morning (October 18), the center of storm FENGSHEN was at approximately 13.1 degrees North latitude; 126.5 degrees East longitude, in the sea east of the central Philippines. The storm intensity is level 8 (62-74 km/h), gusting to level 10.

It is forecasted that tomorrow morning (October 19), storm FENGSHEN will make landfall in the Luzon Island area (Philippines). Tomorrow afternoon and evening, storm FENGSHEN will pass through Luzon Island (Philippines) and enter the East Sea, becoming storm number 12.

It is forecasted that after moving into the East Sea, storm No. 12 will move mainly in the West-Northwest direction and continue to strengthen. By around October 22, when the storm moves to the northern area of ​​Hoang Sa special zone, the storm No. 12 will strengthen to level 11, gusting to level 13.

However, the characteristic of this storm No. 12 is that when the storm moves into the East Sea, the East Sea is under the influence of cold air, the cold air mass blocking the western part of the storm makes it less likely that the storm will move west to enter the North or go up to the Chinese region (due to being blocked in the North and blocked in the West). Therefore, when moving into the Hoang Sa special zone, reaching the strongest intensity of level 11, gusting to level 13, storm No. 12 will be penetrated by cold air and its intensity will gradually weaken, most likely weakening into a tropical depression before affecting the mainland of the Central provinces.

Although the possibility of maintaining the storm's intensity to affect the mainland of the Central region is not high, however, with the impact of the storm's circulation combined with cold air in the Northern seas, the middle of the East Sea (including Hoang Sa special zone), the Gulf of Tonkin as well as the sea area from Quang Tri - Quang Ngai in the coming days, there will often be strong winds from level 6-8 or higher, waves from 3-4m high, and rough seas.

In addition, due to the influence of post-storm circulation No. 12 combined with the impact of cold air from October 23-26, in the area from Ha Tinh to Quang Ngai, there will be a widespread period of moderate to heavy rain.

The interaction of cold air and storms is one of the types of interaction that has many scenarios; if the storm comes first, then the cold air comes later, or the storm and cold air influence each other, it will cause very heavy rain, but in the case that the cold air comes first, then the storm comes, the rain will not be too heavy.

Currently, the rain scenarios as well as the impact of storms on mainland Vietnam still depend a lot on the development of cold air, so it is necessary to closely monitor the simultaneous development of the storm's path and the impact of cold air.

Thu Cuc

Source: https://baochinhphu.vn/du-bao-cac-kich-ban-tac-dong-cua-bao-so-12-102251018120912747.htm