Inflation forecast in 2024 will be higher than last year

DNVN - Economic experts say that there are still many unpredictable variables that will put pressure on inflation from now until the end of the year. Inflation in 2024 is forecast to be higher than in 2023.

According to the General Statistics Office, the consumer price index (CPI) in April increased by 0.07% compared to the previous month. On average, in the first four months of 2024, the CPI increased by 3.93% compared to the same period last year.

In the 0.07% increase in April's CPI, 8 groups of goods and services had price indexes that increased, and 3 groups had price indexes that decreased. Among the 8 groups of goods and services with price indexes that increased, the transportation group had the highest increase of 1.95% (making the overall CPI increase by 0.19 percentage points). This group had a high increase mainly due to the domestic gasoline price increasing by 4.78%; diesel price increasing by 2.01%.

The good news is that among the three groups of goods and services with a price index decrease, the education group decreased by 2.93% compared to the previous month, contributing to a decrease in the overall CPI by 0.18 percentage points. Of which, education services decreased by 3.32%.

It is forecasted that groups of raw materials, goods, and essential consumer services will put pressure on the CPI from now until the end of the year.

The main reason is that on December 31, 2023, the Government issued Decree No. 97/2023/ND-CP amending and supplementing a number of articles of Decree No. 81/2021/ND-CP, requiring localities to maintain stable tuition fees from the 2023-2024 school year.

According to the Ministry of Finance, the commodity market has been relatively stable since the beginning of the year. However, the increase in domestic gasoline prices following world prices has had a direct impact on inflation, although not much, but this is also a factor that needs to be taken into account.

It is forecasted that from now until the end of the year, groups of raw materials, goods and essential consumer services will put pressure on the price level. In particular, gasoline prices are forecast to continue to fluctuate unpredictably.

According to economic expert Ngo Tri Long, in recent times, management agencies have done a good job of forecasting and creating effective scenarios for price management. Thanks to experience in management, this is the 10th consecutive year that inflation has been controlled according to the National Assembly's target.

The Ministry of Finance has forecast three price management scenarios from now until the end of the year. In the highest forecast scenario, the average CPI in 2024 will increase by about 4.5% compared to 2023. Assuming that the CPI in the remaining months increases at the same rate compared to the previous month, then in the remaining 9 months of 2024, the CPI will have room to increase by about 0.26% - 0.39% each month to ensure the target of controlling average inflation in 2024 at about 4% - 4.5%.

Economist Can Van Luc - member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council forecasts that inflation in 2024 will be higher than in 2023. If inflation last year reached 3.25%, this year it is expected to be controlled at around 3.5 - 4%. However, this is not a worrying signal when inflation, although increasing, is still under control below 4%.

Inflation is forecast to rise below 4% this year based on a better economic recovery leading to faster money turnover. Along with that, wages are rising and some essential commodity prices are rising but global food prices are at very low levels.

Ha Anh

Source: https://doanhnghiepvn.vn/kinh-te/du-bao-lam-phat-nam-2024-se-cao-hon-nam-truoc/20240510110105127