Indonesia has only 1% chance of qualifying for the 2026 World Cup

Statistics website World Football Elo Ratings has updated Indonesia's chances of qualifying for the 2026 World Cup, after they lost to Saudi Arabia early on October 9 (Vietnam time).

Indonesia (red shirt) could not make a surprise against Saudi Arabia - Photo: REUTERS

In the early morning of October 9, Indonesia lost 2-3 to Saudi Arabia in the first match of Group B, stage 4 of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers in Asia.

There are 6 teams participating in this stage, divided into 2 groups of 3 teams each. The top two teams will officially qualify for the 2026 World Cup, after 6 teams have already qualified from stage 3.

The two runners-up of this stage will continue to participate in stage 5 to choose the team that wins the intercontinental play-off spot.

Before this round, Indonesia's chances were already considered very low. They suffered numerous disadvantages when the matches took place in Saudi Arabia, and were also the team with the most unfavorable schedule.

According to calculations by the World Football Elo Ratings data site, Indonesia's chance of winning a direct ticket - meaning the top spot in the group - is only 5%, before the match against Saudi Arabia.

And after this defeat, Indonesia's chances were reduced to just 1%. This is an understandable number given their defeat.

To continue to hope to win the top spot, Indonesia must win against Iraq, and even win with many goals scored (at least 2-1, 3-2...).

Then, Indonesia must hope that Iraq beats Saudi Arabia. Then the 3 teams will have 3 points, and the secondary indexes will be taken into account.

Also according to World Football Elo Ratings, the chance of Indonesia beating Iraq is only 22%, while the chance of Iraq beating Saudi Arabia is only 32%.

Indonesia's next match - against Iraq - will take place on the evening of October 12 (local time), while Saudi Arabia will have 3 more days off.

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HUY DANG

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/indonesia-chi-con-1-co-hoi-gianh-ve-du-world-cup-2026-20251009075549182.htm