Unbelievable scenario for Indonesia to participate in World Cup 2026

Indonesia has only a 2% chance of qualifying directly for the 2026 World Cup, after losing 2-3 to Saudi Arabia in the opening match of Group B, the 4th qualifying round of the 2026 World Cup in Asia.

Patrick Kluivert and his students are under great pressure.

In the early morning of October 9, at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Indonesia lost 2-3 to the host team Saudi Arabia. Although Kevin Diks scored the opening goal in the 11th minute, the team from the archipelago could not maintain their advantage.

According to Opta 's calculation model, after this victory, Saudi Arabia's chance of directly qualifying for the 2026 World Cup is at 67.1%. Meanwhile, Indonesia only has a 2% chance of directly qualifying for the 2026 World Cup.

The craziest scenario for Indonesia to lead Group B, thereby winning a direct ticket to the World Cup, is that they must beat Iraq in the match taking place in the early morning of October 12 with a difference of 2 goals or more.

Iraq then must beat Saudi Arabia in the final match by a minimal margin. In this case, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia will all have 3 points, but the Southeast Asian team will be ranked higher on goal difference.

Indonesia team faces difficulties in the 4th qualifying round of the World Cup.

In case Indonesia only wins Iraq by a minimum of 1 goal, they must hope Iraq wins Saudi Arabia by a minimum of 1 goal. At the same time, the number of goals Indonesia scores after 2 matches must be more than the number of goals Iraq and Saudi Arabia scored. Obviously, this scenario is very unlikely to happen.

Currently, Indonesia still has a chance to compete for the second place in Group B, thereby entering the 5th qualifying round of the 2026 World Cup in Asia. They must get a point against Iraq in the next round.

The runner-up in Group B will play the 5th round of the 2026 World Cup Asian qualifiers against the runner-up in Group A, to compete for a ticket to the intercontinental play-off round.

Source: https://znews.vn/kich-ban-kho-tin-de-indonesia-du-world-cup-2026-post1592100.html