Prospects for agricultural export growth

In 2024, the total export turnover of agricultural, forestry and fishery products nationwide will reach 62.5 billion USD - a record high ever, up 18.7% compared to 2023. It is forecasted that in 2025, the agricultural sector will have a lot of room for export growth with the expansion of potential markets, promising to reach and exceed the turnover target of 64-65 billion USD.

Export rice packaging line of Vietnam Rice Company Limited (Dong Thap province). (Photo: NHAT BAC)

Currently, many projects to promote the export of agricultural, forestry and fishery products to major markets such as China, Japan, and the European Union (EU) are being effectively implemented in combination with solutions to open new markets such as the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia; negotiating and signing the next orders in 2025 is a solid foundation for agricultural product exports to make a strong breakthrough.

New targets for many industries

With a leap forward in 2024 with a turnover of 7.12 billion USD, an increase of 27.1% and nearly 1.5 billion USD higher than in 2023, the fruit and vegetable industry aims to reach a turnover of more than 8 billion USD in 2025 and confidently aims for 10 billion USD in the near future.

Nguyen Thanh Binh, Chairman of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association, said: Fruits and vegetables are Vietnam's strong products, being exported to more than 60 markets around the world . In addition to fresh products, the industry also exports many deeply processed products at an increasingly high rate. The export results in 2024 are the accumulation of achievements from many previous years because fruit trees require a long investment period, from 3-5 years. In addition, the export capacity of many enterprises is also constantly improving, meeting the quality and quantity needs of many markets. For example, in the Chinese market, products such as durian, banana, coconut from Vietnam... are all growing positively and are occupying a large market share. The prospect of fruit and vegetable exports in 2025 is forecast to be positive, thanks to many types of Vietnamese fruits being licensed for export. According to information from the Plant Protection Department, Vietnam and the US are negotiating on plant quarantine measures for fresh passion fruit. It is expected that after this process is completed, Vietnam will have more passion fruit products to export to the US market by 2025.

The seafood industry will earn a turnover of 10.07 billion USD in 2024, an increase of 12.2% compared to 2023, and is full of expectations for a growth target of 10-15% in 2025, towards a turnover of more than 11 billion USD.

Deputy Secretary General of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) Nguyen Hoai Nam said: According to the Vietnam Fisheries Development Strategy to 2030, with a vision to 2045, seafood export turnover will reach 14-16 billion USD, making seafood a modern, sustainable commercial economic sector with advanced management and science and technology; a center for deep seafood processing, among the top three countries in the world in producing and exporting seafood. To gradually achieve this goal, processing and exporting enterprises are making efforts to improve product quality, penetrate deeper into large and potential markets. In 2025, the forecast for the export of many seafood products such as shrimp, pangasius, etc. is very positive. VASEP proposed that the Government, the Ministry of Finance , and the State Bank of Vietnam continue to promote export credit and credit packages for forestry and aquatic products as in the recent past to support businesses in the context of increasingly fierce export competition.

Besides vegetables and seafood, many industrial crops are also facing opportunities for remarkable growth such as coffee, pepper, cashew nuts... By 2024, all three of these industries will be in the "billion-dollar export club" with much room for development.

Coffee alone has risen to third place in the list of Vietnam's largest agricultural exports, after vegetables and rice, with a turnover of 5.48 billion USD. The increasing global demand for coffee, along with the improved and enhanced quality of Vietnamese coffee with a variety of deeply processed products, is the basis for this industry to aim for a turnover of 6 billion USD in 2025.

Conquer and open the market

According to Deputy Director of the Institute of Policy and Strategy for Agricultural and Rural Development Nguyen Anh Phong, in the first quarter of 2025, the export of agricultural products can still grow well thanks to the world's demand for food imports forecast to increase due to supply disruptions in some countries affected by armed conflicts and trade competition between major countries...

In terms of market, the US is still a large market with a large population and high consumer demand, so seafood, wooden products, coffee, pepper, and fruit have many opportunities for export growth.

In the Chinese market, the demand for vegetables, fruits and seafood is also expected to increase sharply, respectively 6.64%/year and 7.56%/year in the period 2024-2029. On the other hand, with a favorable geographical location, Vietnamese agricultural products can be transported to China quite conveniently, still retaining their natural quality and freshness at reasonable prices, which will be a great competitive advantage in the context of increasing logistics costs.

In addition, China will also increase imports of other products such as cassava and rubber due to limited domestic supply. In addition, since 2024, Vietnamese agricultural products have appeared for the first time on Chinese e-commerce and social media platforms such as TikTok, Kuaishou, Taobao, JD.com and Xiaohongshu, opening up new and effective trading directions.

In the Middle East market alone, the potential for seafood, fruit and rice products is growing particularly strongly, and businesses need to focus on exploiting it. According to VASEP, countries such as Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar... are potential seafood export markets with strong growth and high consumption demand.

Products such as tuna and pangasius have great opportunities to expand their market share in this region. However, exporters need to pay attention to complying with Halal standards throughout the entire process from production, processing to export transportation... Meanwhile, for rice, some countries in the Middle East have a great demand for Vietnamese rice and are ready to invest in seeds, capital... for Vietnam to produce rice for export to these regional markets.

It can be seen that Vietnam's agricultural export door in 2025 is quite open with the advantage of abundant domestic supply as well as high consumption demand of the import market.

However, to export effectively and sustainably, Deputy Director of the Department of Quality, Processing and Market Development Le Thanh Hoa said that it is necessary to supplement mechanisms and policies to support processing development, develop large raw material areas, clusters linking production, processing and consumption of agricultural products; build value chains for each type of agricultural product associated with logistics infrastructure development. On the other hand, localities need to focus on training and guidance to improve awareness, skills, production and business capacity of producers, effectively implement green agriculture, organic agriculture... to quickly and fully meet the strict requirements on product quality, environment, labor, society... of import partners.

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