ADB: Vietnam's economy maintains growth momentum amid global challenges

According to ADB, Vietnam's economic picture in 2025 shows remarkable resilience, despite facing many external uncertainties, especially the new US tariff policy.

An updated report from ADB stated that in the first half of 2025, Vietnam's gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 7.5% year-on-year, the highest level since 2010, surpassing the 6.4% figure in the same period in 2024.

The main drivers were industry, construction and a boom in export orders before the tax imposition. The manufacturing sector recorded a growth of 10.1%, while construction increased by 9.6% thanks to the acceleration of public investment disbursement. Services and tourism also recovered strongly, contributing 8.1% to overall growth.

In terms of trade, exports in the first eight months of this year reached 306 billion USD, up 14.8% over the same period, with the US, South Korea, China and Japan being the leading markets. However, imports increased faster (17.9%), causing the trade surplus to narrow to 14 billion USD, much lower than 18.8 billion USD last year. This reflects the trend of shifting supply chains and the initial impact of reciprocal tariffs from Washington, the ADB said.

Notably, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows remained strong, with $15.4 billion disbursed, a five-year high for the eight-month period. However, ADB also pointed out that most of the new capital came from adjustments and share purchases, while newly registered FDI capital decreased by 8.1%, showing that there is still a cautious sentiment in the face of new developments related to global trade tensions.

Some other notable points include: Average inflation remained at 3.3%, lower than the target of 4%, despite the increase in housing rental costs and electricity prices; The State Bank kept the operating interest rate unchanged at 4.5%, ensuring abundant liquidity to support growth...

Regarding the outlook for the whole year 2025, ADB adjusted our country's economic growth to 6.7%, but lowered it to 6% for 2026. Bank experts said that internal stability thanks to expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, along with the domestic consumption boom, will help Vietnam maintain its growth momentum, even when exports to the US show signs of slowing down.

However, opinions are still concerned about the challenges: the risk of capital-financial balance deficit, inflationary pressure from the devaluation of the domestic currency, as well as risks from global trade fluctuations.

On that basis, experts believe that in the long term, to reduce dependence on external shocks, Vietnam needs to continue institutional reform, restructure the growth model towards a more balanced direction, strengthen the role of the domestic market and promote digital transformation. With abundant fiscal space (public debt under 34% of GDP), Vietnam has a great advantage in responding to risks, but the important problem is to improve the efficiency of public investment and improve governance capacity.

Source: https://hanoimoi.vn/adb-kinh-te-viet-nam-giu-vung-da-tang-truong-giua-thach-thuc-toan-cau-717835.html