Weak liquidity makes it difficult for stocks to break out

The stock market had a week of strong declines accompanied by weak liquidity. The positive point probably only came from the support level of 1,250 points being maintained and a few agricultural and food stocks attracting investors.

At the end of the trading week, the VN-Index decreased by 22.25 points (-1.75%) to 1,251.71 points. The HNX-Index decreased by 2.23 points (-0.95%) to 232.42 points.

Liquidity on both exchanges this week was higher than the trading week after the National Day holiday (due to having 5 trading sessions compared to 3 sessions last week), but the average trading value per session across the entire market decreased by 21.29%.

Although trading was also less active as market liquidity fell sharply, foreign investors still sold nearly 1,200 billion VND net. Notably, this group turned to strongly disburseFPT shares.

Recently, analysts of ABS Securities Company released a strategic report for September 2024 with forecasts of two stock market scenarios in September.

Scenario 1, the market is supported by credit growth measures and positive macroeconomic factors, plus the Fed starts lowering rates on September 18 and market upgrade solutions are deployed.

It is forecasted that in September, VN-Index will continue to fluctuate sideways, gradually narrowing its amplitude, in the range from 1,250 - 1,269 to 1,284 +/- points. After that, VN-Index needs to conquer the price range of 1,305 - 1,316 points, confirming the upward trend to higher levels of 1,340 - 1,395 points in the coming months.

Scenario 2, which experts assess as having a high probability, the market will continue to move sideways for a longer period, within the range of the past 5 months from 1,165 - 1,185 points to 1,300 points due to the floods and storm Yagi that have not ended, and the damage caused by the storm to the economy has not yet been estimated.

Rong Viet Securities Analysis Center (VDSC) has a more optimistic assessment of the stock market, saying that September will be the time to mark the Fed's reversal of monetary policy.

Meanwhile, the positive macroeconomic context and the progress in resolving bottlenecks to meet the FTSE Russell upgrade criteria will be catalysts to help the Vietnamese stock market maintain its recovery momentum and return to an uptrend.

VDSC expects FTSE Russell to likely have positive comments on the management agency's efforts in this review period and the opportunity to be approved for an upgrade by FTSE Russell in 2025 will be more feasible, when foreign investors and organizations have positive comments during the process of using Pre-funding solutions.

In terms of scores, VDSC expects the VN-Index to trade in the range of 1,250 - 1,325 in September, aiming to bring the 4% yield gap between the stock market and 10-year government bonds closer to the 5-year average value of 3.6%, corresponding to a P/E of 15.2x. This is a level the market has touched many times since the beginning of the year when the general sentiment maintained positive momentum.

Source: https://laodong.vn/kinh-doanh/yeu-thanh-khoan-khien-chung-khoan-kho-but-pha-1394058.ldo