Trump's luck or calculation?

While voters consider the economy and cost of living to be their top concerns, Mr. Trump believes that immigration "goes beyond the economy" and is a key message in his campaign.

At a campaign event in Atlanta on the evening of October 13, former President Donald J. Trump stood on stage, his back to the crowd, and looked up at the screen as ominous music played. For the next minute and a half, the former president and the audience watched silently as news clips of illegal immigrants committing horrific crimes. When the video ended, Mr. Trump declared that immigration was the "number one" issue in this year's election. "(Immigration) goes far beyond economics. There is nothing comparable. America is an occupied nation right now. But November 5th will be America's liberation day," Mr. Trump said after the video ended. In the final weeks before the election, Mr. Trump seemed to be listening to his intuition, focusing on the messages that he believed helped him win the 2016 election. But the former president's intuition contradicted polling data and the views of some advisers, according to the New York Times. Mr. Trump has told aides that he defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016 on the border, but by 2020, illegal border crossings had dropped dramatically, in part due to the Covid-19 pandemic, so he could not use it against President Joseph R. Biden Jr. Now, Mr. Trump believes immigration is more politically potent than ever after record numbers of border crossings under the Biden-Harris administration. But no public or private polling has reinforced Mr. Trump’s intuition. Voters consistently rank the economy and cost of living as their most important issues.

Intuition

Trump has spent a lot of time and energy recently at economic events, proposing tax deductions and promising many benefits to encourage companies to move production facilities to the US or continue operating here. But the former president cannot give up his obsession with immigration. When he started attacking this topic, Trump became lively, animated and threatening. The reaction of the audience and the press was also clearly different from when he talked about goods prices or tariffs. Trump also had another, seemingly more "spiritual" reason to focus on this issue. He once said that his opposition to illegal immigration saved his life. At an event in Butler, Pennsylvania, in July, when Trump turned his head to look at a chart of illegal border crossings on the screen, a bullet grazed his ear. "If you think about it, illegal immigration saved my life," Trump told a crowd in Aurora, Colorado. While some advisers, such as Stephen Miller, fully support the former president's intuition, other allies worry that his extreme statements risk alienating the moderate voters Mr. Trump needs to win over.

Mr. Trump considers immigration a core issue. Photo: New York Times.

Mr. Trump urged his advisers to include more immigration content, and they complied. However, some of the former president’s requests were rejected.

Last month, Trump insisted on coming to Springfield, Ohio, after spreading unfounded rumors that Haitian immigrants were eating the city’s pets. He publicly announced that he would soon be in Springfield. Ohio is not considered a battleground state, but Trump believed his appearance to highlight the dangers of illegal immigration would be politically powerful. However, after bomb threats closed Springfield schools and threats against Haitians spiked, Ohio Republican officials begged Trump to stay away so as not to cause more chaos in an already tense city. Ohio’s Republican governor, Mike DeWine, also condemned Trump for denigrating hard-working Haitians. Many in Trump’s team privately thought a visit to Springfield could do more harm than good. But Trump reiterated his intention to visit Springfield during a Univision town hall broadcast on the evening of October 16. Ultimately, the Trump campaign compromised by having the former president speak in Aurora, Colorado, a city where he often exaggerated the dangers posed by immigrant gangs. Colorado, like Ohio, is not a battleground state, but Trump was determined to make the trip a high-stakes issue. Even when talking about the economy, Trump tends to return to immigration. When asked by the New York Times about his plans to reduce housing costs, the Trump campaign said mass deportations of immigrants would increase housing supply and lower costs. Asked to explain the focus of his campaign in the final days of the race, spokesman Brian Hughes also said: “Mr. Trump sees porous borders as the core of so many problems, whether it’s high housing prices, low wages, or overcrowded hospitals and schools. An open border means tax dollars are wasted on illegal immigrants, instead of benefiting citizens. The end-of-campaign message is to put Americans first and restore prosperity.”

“Playing with fear”

Chuck Rocha, a strategist who has studied polling patterns, said Trump is betting that playing to fear will bring in more votes. Rocha said some of the former president’s rhetoric could appeal to white suburban women who support abortion laws but also fear the influx of migrants. “He’s taking a calculated risk,” he added.

America's views on immigration have changed over time. Photo: New York Times.

Trump’s views on immigration, and the country’s, have changed over time. When he considered running for president in 2011, Trump spent little time on the subject. Three years later, as the number of unaccompanied children crossing the border illegally increased under former President Barack Obama, immigration dominated conservative media and became the focus of Trump’s June 2015 campaign kickoff speech.

Immigration is now a highly promoted issue in the general election, the second most important to many voters. And one of Mr. Trump’s signature policy proposals—building a border wall—is widely supported beyond the base. Mr. Trump is favored over Vice President Kamala Harris on both the economy and immigration. While the economic advantage has narrowed in some polls, Mr. Trump’s advantage on immigration has remained steady. As Mr. Trump has repeatedly attacked Democrats, Ms. Harris and President Biden have had to quickly reframe their image to demonstrate their toughness on the issue. When asked by Fox News on the evening of October 14 about her stance on immigration, Ms. Harris acknowledged that there are still systemic problems. Ms. Harris also tried to use Mr. Trump’s opposition to bipartisan border legislation to argue that the former president was not interested in solving the problem but only wanted to exploit it for political purposes. Meanwhile, at an event in Atlanta on October 13, Mr. Trump continued to emphasize: “After many years of building other countries, we will protect our borders, protect our families, our suburbs, our cities and our towns.”

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Source: https://znews.vn/chap-niem-may-rui-hay-toan-tinh-cua-ong-trump-post1505277.html