New week's stocks: EVN increases electricity prices, which stock groups are 'anxious'?

VN-Index has had difficulty approaching the 1,300 threshold many times - Photo: QUANG DINH

Last week, stocks continued to fail when trying to surpass the old peak of 1,300. Talking to Tuoi Tre Online , experts gave a lot of information that could impact the market.

What factors support stocks to surpass the 1,300 peak?

• Mr. Nguyen Thanh Trung - Director of Thanh Cong Securities Investment Consulting:

- Some reasons why VN-Index is having difficulty approaching the 1,300 zone include concerns about low market liquidity, cash flow only focusing on a few industries such as banking, steel...

Last week, we received information from the US CPI announcement, although it decreased, it was still higher than market expectations, so there was some volatility in the middle of the week. This more or less fluctuated the psychology of investors.

Forecasting the overall score is difficult, but considering the state and supporting fundamentals, it is possible to expect the VN-Index to surpass 1,300 points.

For example, the global market continues to surpass its peak, along with the return of the cheaper money cycle in Europe, the US and China. This trend will have a positive impact on investor sentiment in Vietnam.

Mr. Nguyen Thanh Trung

Q3 results are gradually being announced, with good news usually coming first. The overall market is expected to grow by 15-20%, boosting the fundamentals of businesses.

Another news that may impact some groups of stocks this week is the increase in electricity prices. This may have a negative impact on some industries that consume a lot of electricity such as cement, steel, chemicals, etc.

In the cost of goods sold structure of some businesses, electricity costs account for a high proportion such as: steel 10%, chemicals 9%, cement 14-15%, paper 4-5%...

In contrast to electricity production and distribution enterprises, this price increase will benefit. Accordingly, when EVN improves its finances, it will help improve cash flow to pay for power plants, especially thermal power groups such as POW, PGV, NT2, and QTP...

Cash flow is timid when approaching the 1,300 mark

• Mr. Doan Minh Tuan - Head of Research and Investment Department, FIDT:

- In the first two sessions of last week, VN-Index completed the necessary correction in the 1,265 - 1,270 area. It then quickly recovered, thanks to the bottom-fishing cash flow being higher than expected.

But the cash flow is relatively timid with relatively low trading volume at times when VN-Index touches the 1,300 threshold. The feasible scenario is that the index creates a solid price base in the 1,280 - 1,300 range, accumulates and waits for an opportunity to surpass the peak.

Mr. Doan Minh Tuan

A notable point is that investment cash flow is clearly differentiated before the third quarter financial report. While the banking, steel, essential retail and livestock sectors are attracting very good cash flow thanks to expectations of high growth results in the third quarter, the real estate, securities, non-essential retail sectors... are under pressure to adjust when growth is expected to decline, even to have negative growth.

The base case scenario could be a successful consolidation of the 1,270 support, continuing to fluctuate in the 1,280 - 1,300 range during the Q3 earnings announcement period.

Will investors continue to wait and see?

* Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh, head of macro and market strategy department, VNDirect Securities:

- The start of the third-quarter earnings season will provide some answers to investors' recent concerns surrounding the impact of super typhoon Yagi .

Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh

The overall Q3 earnings picture is expected to remain positive, driven by the growth momentum of the past quarter and the low year-on-year base.

If the profit picture is as positive as expected, it will be a strong morale boost for investors and stock market trends from now until the end of 2024.

In addition, the market also turned its attention to new developments in the US economy as well as the policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in early November.

Currently, the market still believes that the Fed will continue to cut the operating interest rate by 0.25% in the upcoming meeting. Moreover, the US presidential election in November will also have a certain impact on the global financial market.

As investors await important developments, slow and cautious trading may continue this week.

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/chung-khoan-tuan-moi-evn-tang-gia-dien-nhom-co-phieu-nao-thap-thom-20241013214707386.htm