Impressive third quarter GDP, will full-year economic growth reach target?

Big challenge but lots of potential

In the latest report, the General Statistics Office ( Ministry of Finance ) said that the gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter is estimated to increase by 8.23% over the same period last year, just lower than the 14.38% increase in the same period in 2022 in the period 2011 - 2025.

Meanwhile, GDP in the first 9 months is estimated to increase by 7.85% over the same period last year, only lower than the growth rate of 9.44% in the same period in 2022.

With this data, Ms. Nguyen Thi Mai Hanh - Head of the National Accounts System, General Statistics Office - said that to achieve the GDP growth target of 8% for the whole year, the economy must achieve 8.4% growth in the fourth quarter, which is the highest growth rate since 2011.

To achieve 8.3% GDP growth for the whole year, fourth quarter growth must reach 9.5% and to achieve the 8.5% GDP growth target for the whole year, fourth quarter growth must reach 10.2%.

GDP in the third quarter and the first nine months of the year are the second highest in the 14-year period 2011 - 2025. (Illustration photo).

Ms. Hanh assessed that these are challenging goals, especially in the context of a risky global economy, political fluctuations and pressure of global trade decline.

Sharing the same view, economic expert Dr. Bui Kien Thanh said that to achieve the growth target of 8 - 8.5% in 2025, we must overcome many challenges. However, the results achieved in the first 9 months of the year have shown the potential and strong resilience of the Vietnamese economy, as this growth index is higher than in many past years.

“From this result, I believe that Vietnam’s economy will accelerate in the last quarter and the growth target for the whole year of 2025 will exceed 8%. This is also the premise and driving force for growth in the following years,” said expert Bui Kien Thanh.

Associate Professor, Dr. Tran Hoang Ngan also predicted that achieving the economic growth target for the whole year 2025 is very feasible. " The GDP growth result in the first 9 months of the year at 7.85% accurately reflects the socio-economic development situation of the country ," Mr. Ngan emphasized.

Things to do to reach the finish line

Ms. Mai Hanh recommends: To achieve the high growth target for the whole year, the last 3 months of the year need to maximize the favorable conditions and growth drivers. The favorable conditions in the fourth quarter are to continue the 9-month growth momentum, the peak season of year-end orders promotes global consumption, creating conditions for the electronics, textile, footwear, processed agricultural products, wood products, etc. industries to increase production, thereby spreading to other industries such as transportation and warehousing.

In addition, the driving forces from the accelerated disbursement of public investment capital before the year-end closing date, tourism entering the peak period of the New Year and festivals will stimulate consumption, FDI disbursement at the end of the year will increase and the stable policy environment will support businesses to expand production and business.

Expert Bui Kien Thanh highly appreciated the fact that recently, Vietnam has been actively removing institutional bottlenecks and having good policies to attract foreign investment. The evidence is that the total registered FDI capital in Vietnam reached 28.54 billion USD in the first 9 months of the year, an increase of 15.2% over the same period last year.

However, Mr. Thanh noted that Vietnam needs to continue researching to have the most attractive investment environment for both domestic and foreign enterprises, creating jobs for workers, and continuing to expand export markets. Only then can we create a sustainable cash flow to serve economic development.

Experts say that boosting public investment is one of the solutions to contribute to promoting economic growth. (Illustration photo)

Economist, Dr. Vo Tri Thanh also said that the economic growth target of over 8% in 2025 is a big challenge and to achieve it, clearing bottlenecks is an important premise. Because if done effectively, it will help improve confidence in Vietnam's business environment, thereby attracting domestic and international investment capital.

Mr. Thanh emphasized that one of the things that need to continue to focus on is to promote public investment and implement key projects. He analyzed that every 1% increase in public investment disbursement will contribute to increasing GDP growth rate by 0.058%. In addition, every VND of public investment disbursed can stimulate VND1.61 of investment capital from the private sector, creating a strong spillover effect in the economy.

Experts also said that exports, investment, and consumption are the three pillars of economic growth. In 2025, the export situation will fall into a difficult situation due to the volatile new tariff policy of US President Donald Trump, causing a decline in purchasing power and global trade. This development also makes consumption motivation unpredictable. Therefore, the role of investment is very important, especially public investment with many key projects that need to be implemented.

“The rapid but reasonable implementation of projects not only creates momentum for current growth but also ensures long-term development, bringing Vietnam closer to the goal of becoming a developed economy by 2045,” Mr. Thanh said, emphasizing that the Government needs to improve its capacity to monitor investment projects.

According to expert Tran Hoang Ngan, we need many synchronous solutions from now until the end of the year to reach the finish line, including focusing on perfecting institutions, the legal system, administrative reform and especially creating conditions for localities with strengths such as Ho Chi Minh City to break through and accelerate to attract higher growth trains.

“The Government needs to focus on submitting to the National Assembly amendments to Laws and Resolutions for approval, creating a foundation for entering the 5-year plan for the period 2026 - 2030 with strong and sustainable development. In addition, it is necessary to support localities and ministries to quickly resolve backlogged and blocked projects, turning blocks of stone and iron into real projects. At the same time, public assets and public land also need to be processed, auctioned, and exploited to become growth drivers. Finally, it is necessary to strengthen consumer demand and tourism demand. If the above solutions are done well and synchronized, GDP will grow sustainably by over 8%,” Mr. Ngan stated his opinion.

However, Mr. Ngan also emphasized that we should not only look at the short term but should look at the country's development goals for the period 2030 - 2045, in order to have fundamental, long-term solutions, ready to enter the new era.

PHAM DUY

Source: https://vtcnews.vn/gdp-quy-iii-an-tuong-tang-truong-kinh-te-ca-nam-co-dat-muc-tieu-ar969681.html