Accelerating reforms to respond to global trade risks

As of September 2025, the global growth forecasts of most international organizations have been revised up compared to previous forecasts. For the Vietnamese economy, forecasts all predict lower growth in 2025 than in 2024, but some organizations have adjusted the growth rate slightly higher than before. In the last months of this year, the growth momentum will slow down, mainly due to the comprehensive impact of global trade tensions.

Growth challenges

The World Bank (WB)'s September 2025 Vietnam Economic Update Report stated that Vietnam's GDP growth is expected to slow down to 6.6% in 2025. According to the WB, after strong growth in the first half of 2025, Vietnam's economy is expected to slow down in the remaining months of the year. The WB said that the net contribution of exports to GDP growth will decrease, but the above outlook depends largely on further trade developments. Vietnam needs to focus on policies to support growth and protect itself from external uncertainties.

Textile and garment enterprises are most affected by the new US tariff policy. Photo: Garment processing at Meko Can Tho Garment Joint Stock Company.

At the launch of the Review Report, Ms. Mariam J. Sherman, World Bank Country Director for Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos, commented: “With a low public debt ratio, Vietnam has abundant fiscal space. If implemented effectively, public investment will both address infrastructure shortcomings and create more jobs. At the same time, it is necessary to promote reforms to strengthen essential services, build a green economy, develop human capital and diversify trade. These are key factors to help Vietnam minimize global risks and maintain long-term growth.”

According to the WB Report, new export orders of Vietnamese enterprises showed signs of improvement in July 2025 after the Vietnam - US trade agreement was announced, but remained low. The United States is Vietnam's largest trade partner and export market (in 2024, export turnover to the United States accounted for 30% of total export turnover, equivalent to 26% of GDP), especially in the fields of electronics, textiles, and footwear.

Customs data in 2024 shows that the top export items to the US are electronics at 23.2 billion USD (equivalent to 32% of Vietnam's total electronics exports), machinery at 22.1 billion USD (accounting for 42%), textiles and garments at 16.2 billion USD (43%), leather and footwear at 8.3 billion USD (accounting for 36%)...

With the new US reciprocal tariff rate applied to Vietnamese exports of 20% effective from August 2025, textiles, footwear, and wood products will be most at risk. The reciprocal tariff rate for goods transiting through Vietnam is 40%, but based on analysis by WB experts, only about 6.1-8.4% of Vietnam's exports to the US can be classified as transit goods. At the same time, most of Vietnam's exports to the US increased due to increased output in Vietnam, not due to transit.

Forecasts suggest that the impact of tariffs may slow Vietnam's growth in the last months of 2025. According to the General Statistics Office ( Ministry of Finance ), in the first 9 months of 2025, the import turnover of goods reached 331.92 billion USD, an increase of 18.8% over the same period last year. In the first 9 months of 2025, the trade balance of goods had a trade surplus of 16.82 billion USD (in the same period last year, the trade surplus was 21.15 billion USD)...

Regarding export and import markets, the United States is Vietnam's largest export market with a turnover of 112.8 billion USD; China is Vietnam's largest import market with a turnover of 134.4 billion USD. In the first 9 months of 2025, the trade surplus with the United States reached 99.1 billion USD, up 28.3% over the same period last year; the trade surplus with the EU was 28.8 billion USD, up 11.8%; the trade surplus with Japan was 1.5 billion USD, down 26.2%; the trade deficit with China was 84.8 billion USD, up 40.2%; the trade deficit with South Korea was 23 billion USD, up 2.4%; the trade deficit with ASEAN was 10.6 billion USD, up 65.4%.

Commenting on US tariffs, expert Pham Vu Thang Long, Director of Macroeconomic Research at Ho Chi Minh City Securities Company (HSC), said: "The early impacts of tariffs imposed by the US on exports, but Vietnam's exports still increased compared to the same period. We have to review products that can compete although not very high such as: electronic products, wooden furniture, textiles, leather shoes due to lower tariffs than China, India... Particularly, the transit tax rate also considers the level of transit dependence from imported goods from China (machinery, electronics). Vietnam currently has 17 signed FTAs, but the utilization of these FTAs ​​is not even in all markets. In the context of reduced market demand, we need to diversify the market".

Increase policy implementation effectiveness

At the announcement of the Review Report, Mr. Adam McCarty, WB Expert, said that Vietnam needs to have many domestic reforms to adapt to tariffs. To achieve high income by 2045, more targets need to be set; in which priority targets need to be selected, these targets need to be quantified in writing for better implementation. For example, to be able to attract foreign talent, "import foreign experts", visa procedures must be simpler. Next is the PCI index, it is necessary to raise the awareness of provincial leaders, leaders must know where they are to achieve measurement goals. Regarding planning, a whole-of-Government approach is needed, based on integrated planning for each region, empowering regions to properly implement planning projects and plans. Resolution 68 of the Politburo on private economic development is considered a breakthrough, but Vietnam lacks large-scale leading enterprises and needs to solve institutional issues for the private sector to grow stronger. But the key to success is competition, not the scale of enterprises.

According to Dr. Tran Toan Thang, Head of the International and Integration Policy Department - Institute of Economic and Financial Policy Strategy (Ministry of Finance), Vietnam sets an ambitious target of high income by 2045. From now to 2030, the Government sets a high growth target of 10% or more and the resources mobilized for this growth target need up to 26 million billion VND. Current institutional changes to resolve bottlenecks and to complete major infrastructures such as electricity, infrastructure, investment in science and technology... require a change in management thinking, especially in public investment.

International organizations have forecast that Vietnam's economic growth in 2025 will decrease compared to 2024. Specifically, ADB forecasts an increase of 6.7%, WB and IMF forecasts an increase of 6.6% and 6.5%, respectively. To support growth and minimize external risks, Vietnam needs to boost public investment, control risks in the financial system and promote structural reforms.

Article and photos: GIA BAO

Source: https://baocantho.com.vn/day-manh-cai-cach-de-ung-pho-voi-cac-rui-ro-thuong-mai-toan-cau-a192180.html