Robusta coffee prices continue to rise, "supply alarm"; Brazil has a record crop

The domestic coffee price increase is expected to continue in the long term due to the decrease in supply as the area shrinks. Current coffee inventory is estimated at only about 80,000 tons, while there are still 4 months left until the new crop year and the demand for Vietnamese coffee from the world is about 100,000 tons/month, while the demand for robusta coffee in the world remains high.

World coffee prices fluctuated inconsistently, robusta increased, while arabica slightly adjusted in opposite directions between September and December delivery periods.

The pressure of adjusting monetary interest rates by many major central banks has had mixed impacts on the world commodity market in general.

Robusta coffee prices continued to rise due to concerns about scarce supply and the ICE inventory report continued to decline for the 6th consecutive week. As of June 23, Robusta coffee inventory certified and monitored by ICE – London decreased by 2,810 tons, or 3.58% compared to the previous week, to register at 75,590 tons (equivalent to 1,259,833 bags, 60 kg bags).

In the domestic market of Vietnam, the trading price of robusta coffee harvested at the end of the year is 52-53 thousand/kg.

The reason for the continued decline in Arabica coffee prices is none other than the pressure from Brazil's new harvest this year, which is underway with a forecast of a record crop that will contribute to increasing global coffee output in the 2023/2024 crop year by 4.3 million bags compared to the previous crop year, to 174.3 million bags, according to

Giá cà phê hôm nay 25/6/2023: Giá cà phê. (nguồn: pinterest)

Domestic coffee prices today, June 27, increased by 400 - 500 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Pinterest)

At the end of the trading session on June 26, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange turned up. The price of robusta coffee futures for delivery in September 2023 increased by 34 USD, trading at 2,710 USD/ton. The price of futures for delivery in November increased by 21 USD, trading at 2,628 USD/ton. The average trading volume was high.

The New York Arabica Coffee Futures Exchange was inconsistent, with the price of Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US New York for September 2023 delivery up 0.3 cents, trading at 165.15 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the December 2023 delivery decreased 0.2 cents, to 163.65 cents/lb. Trading volume increased sharply.

Domestic coffee prices today, June 27, increased by 400 - 500 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities.

Average price	Change
USD/VND exchange rate	23,350	0
DAK LAK	66,400	+ 500
LAM DONG	66,000	+ 500
GIA LAI	66,100	+ 400
DAK NONG	66,600	+ 400

Unit: VND/kg.

(Source: Giacaphe.com)

According to experts' forecasts, the price increase of robusta coffee will continue when Vietnam's supply is exhausted. Accordingly, the output of the 2022 - 2023 crop year is about 1.5 million tons, plus the 100,000 tons of overlapping goods from the previous crop year, the total supply is 1.6 million tons.

Vietnam exported 1.27 million tons, consumed about 250,000 tons domestically, totaling 1.52 million tons. Thus, the remaining inventory is only about 80,000 tons.

Meanwhile, the average monthly export demand is over 100,000 tons and Vietnam still has 4 months left to finish the crop year. According to a survey from a number of businesses, the goods are mainly in the hands of FDI enterprises.

Brazil, the world's second-largest producer of robusta, began harvesting in May. The recent sharp rise in robusta prices may encourage Brazilians to export more of the bean in the coming time. However, it should be noted that shortages are occurring everywhere.

Bloomberg estimates that Vietnam’s coffee output this year will be the lowest in four years. Brazil’s output is expected to fall by 5%. Indonesia’s robusta output could fall by as much as 20% due to unfavorable weather.

According to data from the International Coffee Organization (ICO), Brazil's robusta coffee exports in the 7 months of the 2022-2023 crop year (from October 2022 to April 2023) also decreased sharply by 36%. For arabica beans, the downward trend may continue in the coming time due to economic difficulties, reducing demand for coffee with higher prices than robusta beans.

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