Coffee prices set new highs

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), prices of industrial raw materials increased simultaneously, with strong growth from two coffee products.

Arabica coffee prices rose 6.64% to $6,660 a tonne, setting a new 13.5-year high, while Robusta coffee prices also rose 4.4% to nearly $5,000 a tonne. This was the third consecutive week of price increases for both commodities, driven mainly by supply concerns in Brazil and Vietnam.

In Brazil, although rainfall in Minas Gerais state, the country’s largest coffee growing region, was 27% above historical average last week, the market remains concerned about soil moisture deficits for the 2025-2026 crop. According to Barchart, rainfall in Brazil has been consistently below average since April, affecting the crucial flowering stage and the outlook for the Arabica coffee crop.

Last week, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in Brazil lowered its forecast for the country’s 2024-2025 coffee production to 66.4 million 60-kg bags, down 3.5 million bags from the previous forecast. The main reason is the decline in Arabica coffee production due to harsh weather conditions during the flowering and bean development stages.

At the same time, USDA also forecasts that exports for the 2024-2025 crop year will decrease by 5% compared to the previous forecast, to 44.25 million bags, 2.5 million bags lower than the previous crop year. Notably, the ending inventory of the 2024-2025 crop year is forecast to decrease sharply by 65% ​​compared to the previous report, to 1.24 million bags, while the ending inventory of the 2023-2024 crop year is also adjusted from 2.885 million bags to 1.685 million bags.

In Vietnam, the market is facing many supply challenges. In addition to concerns about the La Nina phenomenon that may appear later in the year and affect the harvest process, the amount of coffee available at the time of the main harvest in 2024 is also low. According to Reuters, traders in Vietnam said that demand is increasing while supply is still limited. Unlike previous crops, farmers this year are in no rush to sell their coffee due to stable financial situation thanks to revenue from previous sales of durian and pepper.

The low supply situation is also reflected in the export data of the General Department of Customs. Accordingly, the amount of coffee exported in the first half of November reached only 20,933 tons, down 45% compared to the same period in 2023 and down 3% compared to the first 15 days of October 2024. This is contrary to the normal rule when the export volume in November usually increases gradually as farmers enter the main harvest period.

In the domestic market, as of 11:30 today (November 25), the domestic coffee market has unexpectedly increased, with an average increase of VND 1,000/kg, causing prices to fluctuate between VND 118,800 - 120,000/kg. The average coffee purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is VND 120,000/kg.

Lam Dong is still the province with the lowest coffee purchasing price in the Central Highlands. Compared to yesterday's closing price, the coffee price in this region stood at 118,800 VND/kg, although it has increased by 800 VND/kg.

In the same direction, the coffee purchasing price in Gia Lai province today ranked second on the chart with an increase of 1,000 VND, listed at 119,900 VND/kg.

Notably, Dak Lak and Dak Nong have together held the leading position in the province and city with the highest coffee purchasing price in the country for many days, simultaneously increasing by 1,000 VND/kg, setting the mark at 120,000 VND/kg.

The domestic coffee exchange continued its upward trend until the beginning of this week. Up to this point, the domestic coffee price has increased by more than VND10,000/kg, reaching a peak of VND120,000/kg.

According to PV/VTV

Source: https://doanhnghiepvn.vn/kinh-te/gia-ca-phe-thiet-lap-muc-dinh-moi/20241125073140322