The conflict in Ukraine has changed things dramatically and created a new bright spot for NATO. Therefore, the process of finding a new NATO Secretary General in this period requires more factors, because any move by the alliance in this period must be very careful.
The most potential candidates
According to Reuters, with time running out, the race for NATO secretary general is heating up. There has been some speculation about potential candidates to replace Mr. Stoltenberg.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on a working trip to Germany on April 21
During a trip to Germany last week, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace expressed interest in becoming the next leader of NATO and said he "would love the job," according to The Telegraph.
Mr Wallace told German news agency DPA that being secretary general of the transatlantic alliance "would be a great job" but it "would not be my decision".
In addition, NATO members also want the alliance to have its first female secretary general, while others want the position to belong to a former head of state to ensure NATO has the highest political influence. There are also opinions that NATO leader should be someone from a European Union (EU) member state to strengthen the relationship between the two alliances.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen is therefore seen as a strong candidate, as she can meet all three criteria. NATO diplomats say they are seriously considering backing Frederiksen, although she has said she is not interested in the post.
Speculation about Ms Frederiksen being the next NATO leader intensified after the White House confirmed she would meet with US President Joe Biden in early June. The post of NATO secretary general traditionally goes to a European, but any serious candidate would need the backing of Washington, the alliance's leading power.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen speaks at her office in Copenhagen, March 2020.
If elected, Ms Frederiksen would be the third consecutive leader of NATO from a Nordic country. However, she would have to give up her post as prime minister of Norway, which political commentators say would push her fragile government to the brink of collapse.
However, a source familiar with the matter said the Biden administration has not yet targeted a candidate and that “lively debates” are taking place among top aides. The State Department said it was too early to speculate on who Washington would support.
Other possibilities
Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, European Commission (EC) President Ursula von der Leyen (from Germany) and Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland were also named in discussions among diplomats and the press, according to Reuters.
But diplomats say Ms Kallas, compared to other NATO members, is seen as too hawkish on Russia. Being too tough on Russia would pose a difficult challenge for NATO at a time when the alliance must ensure allies support Ukraine while avoiding any escalation that could drag NATO into direct war with Russia.
Meanwhile, Germany wants Ms. von der Leyen to stay on to run the EC. Ms. Freeland faces major obstacles as a non-European and from a country considered slow in defense spending.
Other names considered include Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. However, Mr. Rutte has said he does not want to do so, while Mr. Sanchez is busy with a general election later this year.
NATO countries typically decide who will be secretary-general in closed-door meetings. However, the decision is not clear-cut, and takes place mainly in consultations between leaders and diplomats. Those consultations will continue until all NATO members agree that a consensus has been reached.
If NATO fails to agree on any candidate, Mr. Stoltenberg’s term is likely to be extended again, at least until another NATO summit in 2024. However, Mr. Stoltenberg has said he does not want to stay longer.
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