If Ms. Harris beats Mr. Trump, here's the answer

On November 4, the New York Times published an article explaining the factors that contribute to the success of US presidential candidate Kamala Harris if victory is called her name in the coming days. TG&VN translated the analysis.

Kamala Harris at a campaign rally in Houston. (Source: The New York Times)

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At this point, we still don’t know the outcome of this year’s US election, but we do know Kamala Harris’s strategy. Here are the factors analysts have put forward to explain if she wins this election.

The 2024 US presidential election is a challenging race for Vice President Kamala Harris. She started late and ran against a strong opponent in a relatively gloomy US political climate. She faces an electorate hungry for change, sometimes expressing anger with the direction of the country and the economy .

If Ms. Harris wins, she will likely have to look back at her race, where there were several factors that helped her withstand those “headwinds” and defeat former President Donald Trump.

Voter turnout - the difference maker

The US vice president's support for the traditional Democratic get-out-the-vote effort, which relies on paid staff and unions to knock on doors, will prove effective.

Meanwhile, Mr. Trump has largely left this job to allies, including billionaire Elon Musk, who have much less experience organizing and reaching out to voters.

Ms. Harris's campaign has mobilized 2,500 staff, working in 353 offices nationwide, to find supporters and push them to vote.

In just one week, the campaign recorded 600,000 door knocks and 3 million phone calls.

If so, Ms. Harris’s victory would prove what often seems like a theory: Turnout operations make a difference in close races.

Abortion rights

Abortion has long been a deeply controversial issue in American politics, but the conflict reached a boiling point when the Supreme Court overturned the Roe v. Wade decision in 2022, ending nearly 50 years of constitutionally protected abortion rights.

Ms. Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, has repeatedly emphasized the importance of abortion rights during her campaign, pledging to protect and expand reproductive freedom.

Meanwhile, Mr. Trump, who once enthusiastically supported the Supreme Court’s decision on abortion rights, has recently changed his position several times, which has disappointed conservatives and anti-abortion groups, especially when he said in early October that he would veto a nationwide abortion ban if he became the new president and support giving the decision to individual states.

If Ms. Harris wins, her stance on the issue will undoubtedly be a deciding factor. Mr. Trump’s efforts, such as saying he would not sign a nationwide abortion ban, appear to have failed and only complicated matters.

Supporters of Kamala Harris in Madison. (Source: The New York Times)

Thank you Mr. Trump

If Ms. Harris wins, it will likely be because Mr. Trump turned off many voters, especially in the final days of the campaign, with disjointed, rambling speeches filled with dark innuendo and often threatening tones.

Two weeks before the election, Ms. Harris gave a speech from the Vice President's residence at the Naval Observatory, calling Mr. Trump "unstable," continuing to attack him to facilitate the final stretch of the campaign.

Mr Trump's subsequent actions appeared to lend Ms Harris a hand, from spending about 30 minutes swaying on stage to the music to suggesting that Liz Cheney, a former Republican congresswoman, be sent to war "with nine barrels of guns shooting at her".

Gender gap

Ms. Harris has spent the past four years in the White House, and Mr. Trump has worked hard to link her to President Biden’s legacy. If she wins, she will have succeeded, despite some failed attempts to present herself as a candidate of change, in an election where change is inevitable.

Luckily, she is 18 years younger than Mr. Trump and is a woman.

Unlike Hillary Clinton in 2016, Ms. Harris has not highlighted the historic nature of her candidacy — that she would be the first woman, not to mention the first woman of color and the first Asian-American woman, to serve as president.

Obviously, there is no need to do so.

Ms. Harris’s victory will be fueled by support from women. The final New York Times/Siena College poll, conducted in late October, found a stark gender split: Ms. Harris led Mr. Trump among women, 54% to 42%, while Mr. Trump led Ms. Harris among men, 55% to 41%.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/du-doan-ket-qua-bau-cu-my-neu-ba-harris-danh-bai-ong-trump-day-se-la-loi-giai-dap-292630.html