Pokrovsk is in a stalemate, which side can turn the situation around before the rainy season?

Pokrovsk is in a supply dilemma, the Ukrainian army's counteroffensive is isolated. Who can turn the situation around before the rainy season?

Over the past two weeks, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) have been rallying units on the northern front of Pokrovsk, in an attempt to break the stalemate, but they are caught in a dilemma. Unlike previous attempts, the Russian Armed Forces (RFAF) have not opted for a direct blockade, but instead have used encirclement tactics.

The RFAF used multiple mobile units to move around the Ukrainian flank, precisely cutting off their rear supply lines. This encirclement without attack tactic left the advancing AFU units stuck in a quagmire, with a defensive line in front and no escape route behind.

In terms of the specific combat situation, as soon as the armored column of the 253rd Assault Brigade AFU left its starting position west of Dobropolye, the Russian 76th Airborne Division quickly penetrated from the southwest, successfully blocking the important supply route M04 (Pavlohrad-Pokrovsk).

Russian reconnaissance forces targeted three Ukrainian supply stations in the Pokrovsk industrial zone, and then used long-range artillery fire to deliver precision strikes. With the railway junction also destroyed, the area north and west of Pokrovsk was cut off.

In response to AFU counterattacks on the northern front of Pokrovsk, the RFAF also quickly adjusted its strategy, shifting its main attack to the northwest and southeast of the city. Satellite images of the fire showed that the high-rise area in the southeast had become the "meat grinder" of urban fighting.

Pokrovsk’s dense cluster of high-rise buildings and narrow streets form a Bakhmut-style death trap. Russian troops have taken control of most of the area and are trying to push north to cut off any possible Ukrainian escape routes.

Northwest of Pokrovsk, the Russian offensive on the industrial zone was even more intense. Their strategic intention was clear: if a breakthrough on the northern front was blocked, they would exploit the gap from the west, advance straight towards Grichino and complete the encirclement of Pokrovsk.

Aware of this, the AFU is making every effort to strengthen the industrial zone - it is foreseeable that this area will become the bloodiest battlefield on the entire front. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelensky made a rare speech about the complex situation on the front line, reporting on the progress of the Dobropolye counter-offensive in the Donetsk region.

"We have spoken privately with the military about the situation, there is a report from the Commander-in-Chief (General Syrsky) at the Supreme Command. The Dobropolye counteroffensive operation is still ongoing. I would like to thank all participating units for their effectiveness," President Zelensky said.

According to President Zelensky, since the start of the counter-offensive in northern Pokrovsk, the AFU has recaptured more than 174 square kilometers, in addition, more than 194 square kilometers have been cleared of Russian reconnaissance and special forces groups. Mr. Zelensky also confirmed that Russia's losses in this campaign alone amounted to nearly 3,200 people, most of them killed.

The fighting in the Sumy region was equally tense. The Russian 3rd Guards Division established a bridgehead after capturing the village of Yunakivka. The reason for the AFU’s failure here was that they had to withdraw their reserves to reinforce the city of Pokrovsk, creating a gap in the region’s defenses.

Although the Ukrainian 112th National Defense Brigade launched a counterattack in Yunakivka, under the constant surveillance of the Russian Orlan-10 reconnaissance UAV, the Ukrainian counterattacking forces were ambushed on the banks of the Loknya River, after advancing only 2 km. According to information from the front, the Russians have established strong fortifications in the area, making it difficult for the Ukrainians to cross the river at will.

The key to this war of attrition lies in logistics. The Russian military has shifted its tactics, targeting Ukraine’s vital routes: road junctions are sabotaged, railway stations are destroyed, and fuel depots are constantly under attack.

Now both sides are racing to get ahead of the approaching rainy and winter season. It will be more difficult for Ukraine, as the continuous rain will reduce the frequency of Ukrainian UAV deployments by 60%, giving Russia an opportunity to continue its large-scale and breakthrough artillery tactics.

Military analysts point out that as winter approaches, the war will enter a phase of endurance competition. If the AFU fails to capture strategic positions before the roads become muddy, the RFAF can seize the initiative by exploiting its supply advantage. (Photo source: Military Review, Sohu, Kyiv Post).

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