Ho Chi Minh City housing market recovers, capital flows strongly to the suburbs

After a period of stagnation, the housing market in Ho Chi Minh City is gradually recovering with a sharp increase in transactions and new supply in the third quarter of 2025.

However, the continued high selling price has made the trend of capital flow and home buying demand shifting to neighboring areas such as Binh Duong (old), Long An (old), and Ba Ria-Vung Tau (old), becoming clearer, opening a new development phase for the expanded Ho Chi Minh City metropolitan area.

Housing market recovers but price pressure remains high

According to a report by CBRE Vietnam, in the third quarter of 2025, Ho Chi Minh City recorded 2,549 newly opened apartments and 220 low-rise houses - a significant increase compared to the first half of the year.

Most of the supply comes from the next phases of existing projects or restarted after a long pause. The East continues to be a “bright spot,” accounting for more than 75% of the total new apartment supply.

The primary selling price of apartments in Ho Chi Minh City reached VND87 million/m2, up 6.3% compared to the previous quarter and 31% compared to the same period in 2024. The secondary price also increased sharply to VND60 million/m2, reflecting that the demand for buying houses remains high, although buyers tend to be more cautious about price fluctuations.

In the high-end segment, according to JLL Vietnam, the market recorded 739 successful transactions in the second quarter of 2025, a six-fold increase compared to the first quarter of the year. Projects with good construction progress such as Dhome (DHA Corp.) or Opus One (Long Binh ward) achieved high absorption rates.

Meanwhile, the townhouse segment recorded 54 units sold, nearly double that of the first quarter, with The Sholi Binh Tan project achieving an absorption rate of more than 70% thanks to competitive prices.

The primary price of luxury apartments reached 5,076 USD/m2, down slightly by 0.6% compared to the previous quarter but still up 1.6% compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, the primary selling price of townhouses was at 16,842 USD/m2, up 3% year-on-year.

“The steady price increase in both the primary and secondary markets, despite being at a high level, shows the strong confidence of buyers and investors in the long-term profit potential of residential real estate in Ho Chi Minh City,” said Ms. Trang Le, General Director of JLL Vietnam.

Ms. Pham Ngoc Thien Thanh, Director of CBRE's Ho Chi Minh City Research and Consulting Department, said: "After a long period of stagnation, the low-rise real estate market in Ho Chi Minh City is gradually recovering.

The third quarter recorded more than 170 successful transactions, an increase of more than 100% compared to the previous quarter, mainly concentrated in the Western area such as Binh Tan and Binh Chanh - where there is still land fund and more suitable prices."

However, Ms. Thanh also noted that high prices and increasingly narrowing mid-range supply are making it difficult for real buyers.

Capital flow to the suburbs - an inevitable trend of the market

Despite signs of recovery, experts say Ho Chi Minh City is still in a state of real supply scarcity, especially in the mid-range segment.

“Despite the increase in new supply, the Ho Chi Minh City market is still severely lacking compared to real demand. Price pressure has caused many buyers and investors to move to neighboring localities where land funds are abundant and prices are more reasonable,” said Ms. Duong Thuy Dung, Managing Director of CBRE Vietnam.

Residential real estate in the old Binh Duong area. (Photo: Hong Dat/VNA)

According to CBRE Vietnam, the Binh Duong area (old) in the first 9 months of this year offered nearly 11,000 new apartments for sale, with an average price of less than 60 million VND/m2, only half that of Ho Chi Minh City.

The Ba Ria-Vung Tau and Long An (old) areas also recorded an increase in transaction volume, especially in areas with heavily invested traffic infrastructure such as Ring Road 3, Bien Hoa-Vung Tau Expressway, Tan Van-Nhon Trach.

Mr. Lam Toan Ton (35 years old, Tan My ward, Ho Chi Minh City) shared: “My wife and I were looking to buy an apartment in the inner city but the price increased too quickly. After surveying the suburban area, we decided to choose an apartment in Di An, the price is only 60% compared to the old Thu Duc city area but the infrastructure is very good. Going to work is still convenient and the cost is much more reasonable.”

According to JLL Vietnam's forecast, in 2025, Ho Chi Minh City will welcome an additional 5,000-5,500 luxury apartments and 1,300 new townhouses. At the same time, key infrastructure projects such as Terminal T3, An Phu intersection, and Ring Road 3 will create momentum for the market next year.

However, JLL also believes that the process of restructuring administrative boundaries and reforming public investment procedures may cause the market to go through a temporary period of caution, before entering a new growth cycle.

From a business perspective, Mr. Nguyen Van Hien, representative of a housing project development company in Binh Tho ward, commented: “The biggest difficulties now are legal issues and capital costs. Although demand is still very good, many investors are forced to adjust the implementation progress to ensure cash flow. However, with positive signals from the removal of 86 stalled projects, we expect the market to be vibrant again in the fourth quarter and early 2026.”

Many experts also believe that regional connectivity is becoming an irreversible trend. Satellite areas with synchronous planning in terms of traffic, social infrastructure and utilities are attracting young customers - a group with real housing needs but limited financial capacity.

Real estate in Vung Tau ward. (Photo: Huynh Son/VNA)

“The expanded Ho Chi Minh City will be the most dynamically developing area in the country in the next few years. When the price difference between the city center and the suburbs is still large, the trend of capital and buyers moving to satellite cities is inevitable,” Ms. Duong Thuy Dung, CEO of CBRE Vietnam, emphasized.

The housing market in Ho Chi Minh City and neighboring areas is showing clear signs of recovery in terms of transaction volume and supply, but high price pressure and scarcity of mid-range segment remain difficult problems.

In the context of strong investment in regional infrastructure and gradual removal of legal policies, capital flows and housing demand are expanding to neighboring localities, contributing to the formation of a multi-polar urban space - an inevitable development trend of the Southern key economic region./.

Source: VNA

Source: https://htv.com.vn/thi-truong-nha-o-tp-ho-chi-minh-phuc-hoi-dong-von-chuyen-manh-ra-vung-ven-222251017092605102.htm