VCCI: The roadmap for increasing special consumption tax should be considered from 2028

ANTD.VN - The Vietnam Federation of Commerce and Industry (VCCI) assessed that the adjustment of special consumption tax could affect the growth target of 8% this year and double digits in the coming years.

Increasing excise tax may affect growth target

According to VCCI, in the current challenging economic context, adjusting tax policies, especially special consumption tax, needs to be considered carefully and comprehensively.

Citing data from the General Statistics Office, VCCI said the number of businesses withdrawing from the market in 2024 increased by 14.7% compared to 2023, reaching a record 197,900 businesses. It is forecasted that in 2025, the global economy will continue to develop complicatedly, with many potential risks, while businesses in many fields are facing a situation of continuous decline in purchasing power and increasing input costs.

On the other hand, Resolution 192/2025/QH15 of the National Assembly has decided to set the target of GDP growth rate in 2025 at 8% or more and Vietnam aims for double-digit growth in the coming years.

Investment and consumption are two important factors that have a direct impact on economic growth. Sudden adjustments in excise tax rates can reduce purchasing power, negatively affecting the production and business activities of enterprises and the overall development of the economy.

Therefore, VCCI recommends not to consider increasing taxes and adding items subject to special consumption tax at this time to avoid adverse impacts on the market and business community.

Tax adjustments (taxable objects, tax calculation methods, tax rates, tax rates and roadmap) need to be considered more carefully, based on comprehensive, flexible, effective and practical impact assessment studies. The tax increase roadmap can be considered from 2028, with a reasonable increase of 5% every two years, to help businesses have time to adapt, ensure the feasibility of the policy and limit negative impacts on the market.

In addition, it is necessary to consider amending the Law on Special Consumption Tax in the direction of providing framework regulations and long-term stability, in which only the principle of adjusting the maximum tax rate or narrowing or expanding the taxable subjects is provided, while at the same time assigning the Government to proactively develop a roadmap for adjusting tax rates based on the actual situation.

VCCI stated that increasing special consumption tax at a high level and suddenly in both options of the draft Law could cause many negative impacts and needs to be considered more carefully.

First of all, the rapid increase in tariffs will put a lot of pressure on businesses and the entire supply chain. Businesses will hardly have enough time to adjust their business strategies, invest in new production technology or improve product quality.

This could lead to a reduction in production scale, losses and even bankruptcy, directly affecting the jobs of millions of workers in related industries, from production, processing to distribution and export.

Second, sharp tax increases can increase smuggling and illegal trade. When the price of legal products increases, consumers tend to look for smuggled or unofficial goods that are cheaper but are not quality controlled; thus not only causing loss of state budget revenue but also increasing pressure on management agencies in controlling the market, at the same time potentially affecting the health of consumers.

In addition, there is no clear evidence that a sharp increase in excise tax will significantly reduce consumer behavior. Instead, consumers may switch to informal products or cut spending in other areas to maintain current consumption levels. Therefore, the goal of protecting public health may not be achieved as desired.

Finally, in terms of macroeconomic impacts, both options in the draft Law risk reducing the added value of the industry and negatively impacting GDP. Although in the short term, budget revenues may increase, in the medium and long term, the decline in legal production combined with the rise of the informal market will seriously affect state revenues.

Source: https://www.anninhthudo.vn/vcci-lo-trinh-tang-thue-tieu-thu-dac-biet-nen-xem-xet-tu-nam-2028-post605235.antd