4th round of World Cup 2026 Asian qualifiers: What are the chances for Indonesia?

At 3:00 p.m. today, July 17, the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) conducted the draw to divide the two groups in the 4th qualifying round of the 2026 World Cup in Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia). The Indonesian team (representative of the Southeast Asian region) was at a disadvantage.

The AFC's early designation of Qatar and Saudi Arabia as the hosts of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers in the Asian region has led to a change in the seeding rules for the 6 teams participating in this round. In addition to the 2 hosts of the above groups, there are also Indonesia, Iraq, Oman and UAE.

The Indonesian team (15) faces many challenges in their journey to find a ticket to the 2026 World Cup.

Photo: Reuters

AFC used the teams' positions on the FIFA rankings on June 13 to seed them, instead of the positions on the rankings just announced on July 10. The reason is to separate the two teams Qatar and Saudi Arabia into two groups. Based on the FIFA rankings on June 13, Qatar is ranked 53rd in the world , while Saudi Arabia is 58th. Meanwhile, according to the recent FIFA rankings in July, Iraq is ranked 58th and Saudi Arabia is 59th; Qatar still holds the 53rd position.

Therefore, if Iraq is seeded No. 1 with Qatar, the Indonesian team can avoid at least one strong opponent in the same group.

Accordingly, the seed groups are determined to include group 1 being Qatar and Saudi Arabia; group 2 being Iraq and UAE; group 3 being Oman and Indonesia. From these 3 seed groups, lots will be drawn into 2 groups, with 3 teams in each group. Thus, Indonesia will only avoid meeting Oman because they are in the same seed group, while the probability of meeting 2 strong teams Qatar or Saudi Arabia and Iraq or UAE is very high.

The 4th qualifying round of the 2026 World Cup in Asia will take place from October 8 to 14. The top teams in the two groups will win the remaining two official tickets from the Asian region to the 2026 World Cup. The two runners-up will play two play-off matches on November 13 and 18, with the winning team entering the intercontinental play-off round (6 teams) to compete for two play-off tickets in March 2026.

Source: https://thanhnien.vn/vong-loai-thu-4-world-cup-2026-khu-vuc-chau-a-co-hoi-nao-cho-indonesia-185250716214752193.htm