WTO forecasts global economic growth to continue in the next two years

In its annual trade forecast, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said that world trade volume in 2023 will decrease by 1.2%. The decline is mainly due to long-term high energy prices and inflation that reduces demand for goods.

In addition, the WTO warned that regional conflicts, geopolitical tensions and economic policy uncertainty could cloud the global trade outlook.

“ We are making progress in the recovery of global trade. It is imperative to mitigate risks such as geopolitical conflicts and trade fragmentation ,” said WTO Director Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.

Dự thảo quy định mới nhất của WTO về thủy sản mở rộng số các thành viên phải tuân thủ

WTO forecasts global economic growth to continue in the next two years

According to WTO chief economist Ralph Ossa, global trade in 2023 will decline mainly due to lower-than-expected activity in the European region, and persistently high energy prices and inflation, which will reduce demand for manufactured goods.

The WTO did not give a specific forecast for the development of the service sector but still said that the sector is expected to grow further in 2024, especially in the tourism and passenger transport sectors related to the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris and the European football championships.

At the same time, the WTO also believes that global goods trade is starting to recover, partly thanks to slowing inflation.

“ The global economy will continue to grow over the next two years, at 2.6% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025. Merchandise trade volumes are expected to increase by 2.6% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025, respectively ,” the WTO forecast.

Previously, the World Bank (WB) predicted that the global economy would grow slowly for the third consecutive year in 2024.

According to the World Bank's Global Economic Prospects Report, the global economy by the end of 2024 will record a "grim record" with the slowest half-decade GDP growth rate in 30 years.

The World Bank believes the prospect of a global recession has eased, largely due to the strength of the US economy. However, the organisation warns that rising geopolitical tensions, particularly over the Israel-Hamas conflict and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, risk making economic growth even weaker.

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