International organizations forecast bleak global trade outlook

Global merchandise trade surged in early 2025, but the momentum may not be sustained. Photo: Trong Hai

Global merchandise trade surged in early 2025 as importers bought ahead of expected higher tariffs, but weaker export orders suggest the momentum may not be sustained, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO).

In June 2025, the goods trade measure rose to 103.5 (102.8 in March 2025), but the new export orders sub-index reached just 97.9, projecting weaker trade growth by the end of 2025 as businesses import less and reduce accumulated inventories.

Transport-related component indices, including air freight (104.3) and container shipping (107.1), reflected the increase in freight traffic.

The automotive products index (105.3) is also above trend due to a recovery in vehicle production and sales. The electronic components index (102) has risen above trend after falling in 2023 and 2024.

Finally, the raw materials index (100.8) grew modestly, just slightly above the baseline.

The OECD forecasts global trade to grow 2.8% in 2025, 0.8 percentage points lower than its December 2024 forecast, and to decline further to 2.2% in 2026.

The World Bank (WB) forecasts global trade growth in goods and services in 2025 to reach only 1.8%, down 1.3 percentage points from the forecast in January 2025. This is a much lower growth rate than the 3.4% figure in 2024 and 4.6% before the pandemic.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that global trade volume in goods and services will increase by only 1.7% in 2025, down 1.5 percentage points from its January 2025 forecast and down more than half from 3.8% in 2024.

According to international organizations, the main reason for the worsening global trade outlook is the increase in trade barriers, especially tariffs, along with widespread policy uncertainty.

Trade barriers and policy instability have depressed global trade. Photo: Lam Giang

The IMF said new US tariffs and countermeasures have pushed global tariffs to their highest level in a century.

Rising trade tensions and policy uncertainty negatively impact investment, business confidence and consumer confidence.

The United Nations (UN) said that global trade conflicts will put great pressure on investment, weaken global demand, increase business costs and increase policy instability.

Many companies are taking a “wait and see” approach, delaying or cutting back on capital expenditures.

While goods trade faces many headwinds, some sectors show relative resilience. The World Bank said global services trade growth has been relatively stable, with tourism activity approaching pre-pandemic levels.

However, the boost to services exports from the recovery in tourism has weakened. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) said that regional technology exporters remain a bright spot, benefiting from strong global demand for electronics. The semiconductor market is expected to grow 11.2% by 2025, mainly thanks to logic and memory products used in artificial intelligence applications.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) forecasts that the digital economy will reach $16.5 trillion by 2028, driven largely by investments in technology such as data centers and cloud services.

Source: https://hanoimoi.vn/cac-to-chuc-quoc-te-du-bao-trien-vong-thuong-mai-toan-cau-am-dam-709725.html