World Bank: Exports and tourism lead Vietnam's GDP growth in the first half of 2025

According to the latest report of the World Bank, Vietnam in the first half of 2025 has strong GDP growth momentum from exports, investment and tourism, although the full-year GDP is expected to be at 6.6% due to slowing exports.

International tourists visit Phu Quoc ( An Giang ) - Photo: QUANG DINH

Exports and tourism are drivers of GDP

According to the World Bank's Vietnam Economic Update report to September 2025, in the first half of 2025, Vietnam's GDP increased by 7.5% (year-on-year), higher than the 6.5% in the same period in 2024.

The driving force for GDP growth came from exports, while businesses stepped up frontloading orders amid uncertainty about global trade policy.

Exports increased by 14.2% (y/y), of which exports to the US increased sharply by 28.3% due to the possibility of increased tariffs in the coming time.

Investment is expected to increase by 8.0% in constant prices (y/y), higher than the 6.7% in the first half of 2024, thanks to stable FDI and increased public investment. Accordingly, despite many uncertainties in global trade, FDI in Vietnam continues to remain stable.

FDI disbursement reached 26.2 billion USD (equivalent to 5.5% of GDP) in the 12 months to June 2025, up 9.3% year-on-year. Registered FDI capital increased sharply by 23.8% (year-on-year), focusing mainly on processing and manufacturing (51%) and real estate (22%).

However, newly registered FDI reached 9.3 billion USD in the first half of 2025, down 3% year-on-year, showing a slowing trend after two years of continuous growth.

Meanwhile, final consumption increased by 8.0%, compared with 5.8% in the same period last year, mainly due to the strong recovery of tourism.

Service revenue is expected to grow more strongly in 2025, with accommodation and catering services increasing by 16.2%. Tourism is also expected to increase by 60.2% (y/y) thanks to the recovery of international visitors, especially Chinese visitors, and major festivals held in 2025.

Private consumption will continue to be an important driver of the economy, contributing about 53% of GDP in 2025. However, this share is on a declining trend and is currently lower than the median of 63% for developing countries in the East Asia region.

Dependent on the US market

Although Vietnam's exports to the US continued to grow strongly in June 2025, with computers posting a record increase of 78.6%, the World Bank forecasts that trade growth is expected to slow in the coming months.

Vietnam's total merchandise exports are expected to increase amid Washington's continued tariff threats from the end of 2024. Accordingly, total merchandise exports will increase from 9.2% in November 2024 to 14.5% in the first half of 2025.

Export growth peaks at 19.8% in April 2025, just as the US announced reciprocal tariffs before they were suspended.

As the US is Vietnam’s largest export market, policy changes in the country pose a significant risk to Vietnam’s export prospects. New orders showed signs of improvement in July 2025 after the announcement of the US-Vietnam trade agreement, but remained low.

Against this backdrop, Vietnam’s GDP is forecast to grow by 6.6% in 2025, slowing down after a period of strong growth in the first half of the year. Exports are forecast to return to stable growth, reducing the net contribution of exports to GDP.

GDP in 2026 is forecast to decline to 6.1%, as weakening global trade begins to have a clear impact. On the bright side, GDP in 2027 is expected to recover to 6.5%, thanks to a rebound in global trade and Vietnam’s competitive advantage in global value chains being maintained.

Global economic growth slows

Global economic growth is expected to slow due to slowing trade. Global growth is forecast to decline from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026 (-0.4 and -0.3 percentage points, respectively, compared to the January 2025 forecast). The main reasons are weak global trade growth and persistent geopolitical tensions.

The US and China, Vietnam's two largest trading partners, are forecast to slow down in growth in the second half of 2025, thereby limiting demand for Vietnam's exports.

Export-oriented economies, including Vietnam, will be directly affected by these developments.

NGHI VU

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/world-bank-xuat-khau-du-lich-dan-dat-tang-truong-gdp-viet-nam-nua-dau-2025-20250908132038957.htm