German election reaches final stage

Germany's conservative CDU/CSU party is leading, but finding a coalition to form a government will be a challenge.

German voters will go to the polls on February 23 to elect a new parliament . This election will almost certainly bring about a change in the country's leadership, as the conservative CDU/CSU (Christian Democratic Union/Social Union) led by Friedrich Merz is creating a large gap.

Conservatives hold the advantage

Polls over the past several months have shown similar results for the four major parties. A YouGov survey on February 17 showed that the CDU/CSU maintained its lead with 27% of supporters, far ahead of the second-placed far-right AfD (Alternative for Germany) party of Ms. Alice Weidel - which received 20%. The SPD (Social Democratic Party) of current German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the Green Party of Mr. Robert Habeck followed with 17% and 12% respectively.

4 candidates debated on February 16: (From left to right) Mr. Scholz (SPD), Mr. Habeck (Green Party), Mr. Merz (CDU/CSU) and Ms. Weidel (AfD)

Despite being in the lead, Mr Merz's coalition still needs to pay attention to how many seats it wins out of the 630 seats up for election. The more seats the CDU/CSU wins, the less likely it is that it will have to form a coalition with multiple parties to form a majority in parliament.

"I want to make sure strategically that we have at least two options, and only one, which could be the SPD or the Greens," Merz said during the German chancellor candidate debate on February 16, according to Politico. He also ruled out the possibility of a coalition with the far-right AfD. If Merz were to have to cooperate with more than one party, his faction could have difficulty running a government, due to the possibility of different views emerging between the parties.

The national polls also show a clear rise of the far right, with the AfD expected to come in second with 22% support, more than double the 2021 election result. At the bottom, small parties, including the FDP (Free Democratic Party), the Left Party and the BSW, will have to work hard to get 5% of the vote, the necessary condition to enter the German parliament. The election results of small parties can also affect the overall picture, if they win enough seats to form a coalition with the leading party to form a majority government.

Important issues

Economy and immigration are two major issues that parties highlight to attract support. According to Reuters, Germany, Europe's largest economy, recorded a recession for the second consecutive year last year. High energy prices have had a major impact on the economic situation and the lives of households and businesses in Germany. Of the four leading parties in the race, the CDU/CSU, SPD and the Green Party agree to expand renewable energy to reduce costs but differ on spending stance. The CDU and AfD propose to reconsider the use of nuclear energy, an idea opposed by the other two major parties. Meanwhile, AfD disagrees with subsidies for renewable energy projects.

The immigration situation has heated up recently with serious attacks in Germany involving foreign suspects. This has increased public concerns about security and parties have also taken a stance on immigration. On this issue, the AfD has taken a hard line, calling for border closures and the removal of refugee quotas. Some senior members of the AfD also want to deport millions of people of foreign origin, including those who have German citizenship.

Meanwhile, Mr. Friedrich Merz's decision to put two anti-immigration bills supported by the AfD to the vote has caused a wave of outrage. Opponents say Mr. Merz has broken the taboo by breaking the "firewall" - a political stance since World War II, according to which political parties in Germany will not openly support or cooperate with far-right parties. The SPD also wants tighter border controls, combined with the selection of skilled foreign workers. On the contrary, the Green Party has a stance of maintaining an open asylum policy and increasing integration.

How does the German parliamentary election take place?

Some 59 million Germans aged 18 and over are eligible to vote on February 23. Each person will have two votes. The first vote will be for candidates in 299 constituencies, the other for political parties. The remaining parliamentary seats will be divided among the parties according to the proportion of the second vote.

A party needs to receive at least 5% of the vote to enter the German parliament. If it does not have enough, it can still get a seat in parliament if at least three of its candidates win in 299 constituencies. This year is also the fourth time Germany has held early elections since World War II.

Source: https://thanhnien.vn/bau-cu-duc-den-giai-doan-nuoc-rut-185250219222227765.htm