Waiting for cash flow to return to stocks

During the last trading week of August, the "early holiday" mentality prevailed, causing the stock market to operate somewhat "timidly" before the National Day holiday, with a narrow fluctuation range (15 points).

VN-Index closed at 1,283.87 points, down 0.11%; liquidity decreased 11% compared to the previous week.

Investors and experts' expectations that the VN-Index will surpass the short-term peak of 1,300 points have been moved to the first week of September, because it is difficult for the market to overcome the important psychological resistance with the current decline in liquidity.

Looking at the market over the past 10 years, the drop in liquidity momentum before a long holiday is a natural defensive state of mind. Trading volume in the week before the holiday drops by an average of about 25%.

However, VN-Index then often increases in September and has strong fluctuations within a 3-month period, with a probability of 45% exceeding the peak, 36% creating a peak, and 19% going sideways.

Looking back at the outstanding macro information of the past week, the stock market received a lot of positive information. Domestically, the cooling of the exchange rate has supported the gradual expansion of monetary policy, the State Bank stopped issuing treasury bills and injected net liquidity into the market (scale of 33,220 billion VND).

Credit growth in August was stronger after slowing in July, reaching 6.25% year-on-year.

FTSE has reported that it is considering upgrading the Vietnamese stock market following moves to loosen prefunding regulations.

Regarding factors affecting the world market, the US economic growth in the second quarter of 2024 reached 3%, higher than the previous estimate of 2.8%, expanding the optimistic perspective for investors.

Based on the above factors, experts from DSC Securities Company believe that the stock market has a high probability of successfully testing the resistance level of 1,300 points in the fourth time approaching this point since the beginning of 2024. Investors holding stocks should be patient and wait for cash flow to return after the National Day holiday.

Experts from HSC Securities Company also commented that, in terms of opportunities, the resistance level of 1,300 points caused the index to adjust many times, but the recovery efforts were shown more and more clearly and fiercely, when the system of bottoms continued to form higher than the previous bottom.

The possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates and expectations that the domestic market will receive similar information and events will support trading sentiment and the 1,300 point threshold is expected to be successfully conquered soon.

Source: https://laodong.vn/kinh-doanh/cho-doi-dong-tien-quay-tro-lai-voi-chung-khoan-1388538.ldo