Czech warns Ukraine will suffer heavy casualties in counterattack

Czech President Pavel said Ukraine was likely to counterattack successfully, but could also suffer heavy casualties if Russia defended well.

"There is certainly hope that Ukraine's counteroffensive will be successful, because Ukraine has a motivated, well-prepared, experienced army and will certainly not succumb to the same shortcomings as the Russian army," Czech President Petr Pavel said in an interview at his residence in Prague on May 12.

According to him, the Russian army has many serious problems with logistics and morale, but it should not be assumed that their defense system will collapse.

"Russia has had time to prepare a relatively high-quality and thorough defense system on a number of fronts. If they use it effectively, Ukraine will suffer great casualties," said Mr. Pavel.

He also said it was impossible to say how much territory Ukraine could regain because many scenarios could happen. "Things do not always go as desired or planned, but we think Ukraine's chances of achieving significant success are very high," the Czech president said.

Czech President Petr Pavel at a press conference in Prague on May 2. Photo: AFP — Czech President Petr Pavel at a press conference in Prague on May 2. Photo: *AFP*

Mr Pavel also said Ukraine would receive the Western fighter jets it had requested, but not before the counter-offensive. The higher priority now was ammunition.

Since the outbreak of hostilities, Ukraine has repeatedly asked for quick accession to NATO, but Pavel believes this will take time. "Supporting Ukraine's accession to the European Union (EU) and NATO is our long-term goal," Pavel said when asked what NATO should tell Ukraine at the upcoming summit.

"Preparations for joining both organizations are very complicated, require long-term preparation and meet all the criteria, but we should help Ukraine do it. The more stable Ukraine is economically , the more chances it has to prepare for NATO membership sooner," the Czech leader added.

Mr. Pavel, 61, was elected president of the Czech Republic in January. He served as chairman of the NATO Military Committee, the second-highest position in the alliance after the secretary general, until 2018. Speaking to British media on May 7, he stressed that Ukraine "should not underestimate Russia."

Ukraine and the West have recently repeatedly mentioned a large-scale counter-offensive operation to retake areas controlled by Russia. Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the private military group Wagner, said that Ukraine's counter-offensive has already begun, while Kiev said it still needs time to prepare.

According to recently leaked intelligence documents, the US estimates that 15,500 - 17,500 Ukrainian soldiers were killed and 109,000 - 113,500 were wounded in the conflict.

US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on May 1 that more than 20,000 Russian soldiers had been killed and about 80,000 wounded in the conflict with Ukraine. The Kremlin later denied this, calling it fabricated information. The last time Russia announced casualties on the Ukrainian battlefield was in September 2022, when Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu announced 5,937 military deaths.