Gasoline price forecast to increase slightly in the operating period on February 6, 2025

Domestic gasoline prices for tomorrow's adjustment period (February 6) are forecast to increase slightly, while diesel prices are likely to continue to decrease.

Tomorrow (February 6, 2025) is the retail price management period. gasoline according to Decree 80/2023/ND-CP amending and supplementing a number of articles of Decree 95/2021/ND-CP and Decree 83/2014/ND-CP of the Government on petroleum trading.

At 6:00 a.m. on February 5, world oil prices remained mixed, in the context of a sharp increase in US gasoline and oil inventories. WTI oil prices increased by 0.05 USD, equivalent to 0.07%, to 72.75 USD/barrel. US Brent oil prices increased by 0.24 USD, equivalent to 0.32%, to 76.2 USD/barrel.

Oil prices edged higher on a sharp drop in distillate inventories. Distillate inventories saw their second straight weekly decline, falling 6.979 million barrels. The previous week, distillate inventories fell 3.75 million barrels.

Meanwhile, according to data estimated by the American Petroleum Institute (API), crude oil inventories in the United States increased by 5.025 million barrels in the week ended January 24. Analysts had predicted an increase of 3.17 million barrels.

According to API inventory data, US crude oil inventories fell by more than 12 million barrels in 2024, and this downward trend continued after the new year.

Based on the developments in world oil prices, some oil companies believe that domestic oil prices in the February 6 adjustment period may be adjusted upwards. Specifically, if the management agency does not affect the Oil Price Stabilization Fund, domestic oil prices may increase by about 200-230 VND/liter. Meanwhile, diesel prices may decrease by about 30 VND/liter.

In case the executive agency spends the Stabilization Fund, gasoline prices may increase less or remain the same.

In another development, the Vietnam Petroleum Institute's (VPI) Machine Learning-based gasoline price forecasting model said that in the operating period on February 6, the retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline could increase by VND232 (1.1%) to VND20,622/liter, while RON 95-III gasoline could increase by VND202 (1%) to VND21,202/liter.

VPI's model forecasts that retail oil prices will increase slightly this period, in which kerosene may increase by 0.8% to VND19,504/liter, fuel oil may decrease by 0.7% to VND17,379/kg, diesel oil may decrease by 0.1% to VND19,225/liter. VPI forecasts that the Ministry of Finance and Industry and Trade will continue not to set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund this period.

Previously, in the operating session on February 1, the Inter-ministerial Industry and Trade - Finance adjusted down. Specifically, the price of E5 RON92 gasoline decreased by 201 VND/liter, down to 20,391 VND/liter, RON95 gasoline decreased by 140 VND/liter, the retail price is 21,002 VND/liter.

Prices of all types of oil also decreased sharply: diesel oil decreased by 948 VND/liter, down to 19,246 VND/liter; kerosene decreased by 671 VND/liter, down to 19,439 VND/liter; mazut oil decreased by 250 VND/kg, down to 17,502 VND/kg.

During this operating period, the management agency continues not to set aside or use the price stabilization fund for all goods.

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