Gold price down to 3-month low, too much resistance, will price continue to fall?

Gold prices today, June 16, faced difficulties amid the rising USD and US government bond yields after the Fed kept interest rates unchanged but maintained its hawkish trend. Investors are worried about inflationary pressures remaining too high for too long.

LIVE UPDATE TABLE OF GOLD PRICE TODAY 6/16 AND EXCHANGE RATE TODAY 6/16

1. SJC - Updated: June 15, 2023 14:19 - Website supply time - ▼ / ▲ Compared to yesterday.
Type	Buy	Sell out
SJC 1L, 10L	66,550	67,150
SJC 5c	66,550	67,170
SJC 2c, 1C, 5 phan	66,550	67,180
SJC 99.99 gold ring 1 chi, 2 chi, 5 chi	55,450	56,400
SJC 99.99 gold ring 0.5 chi	55,450	56,500
99.99% Jewelry	55,300	56,000
99% Jewelry	54,246	55,446
Jewelry 68%	36,234	38,234
Jewelry 41.7%	21,504	23,504

World gold prices fell nearly 1% during the day, trading at a three-month low after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) signaled the possibility of raising interest rates this year.

Analyst Suki Cooper of Standard Chartered Bank said that the market is entering a period of seasonal slowing in physical gold demand, which is one of the signals that contributes to the possibility that gold prices will fall lower in the coming sessions if the US economic data weakens.

According to TG&VN at 9:25 p.m. on June 15 (Vietnam time) on Kitco, the gold price was trading at 1,956.60 - 1,957.60 USD/ounce, up 14.6 USD compared to the previous session . The August gold futures price was last traded at 1,939 USD/ounce, down 1.52% on the day.

Giá vàng hôm nay 16/6/2023: Giá vàng gặp lực cản

Gold price today June 16, 2023: Gold price falls to 3-month low, faces many resistances, will price continue to fall deeply? (Source: Shutterstock)

In new economic projections, the Fed signaled that a stronger-than-expected economy and slower inflation would push borrowing costs up by half a percentage point later this year. At the June 13-14 meeting, nine of 18 Fed officials saw the overnight interest rate needing to rise by half a percentage point from its current range of 5% to 5.25%, while three others saw it needing to go higher.

Tim Waterer, market analyst at KCM Trade , said gold's price action will depend on how long the Fed's hawkish comments will continue to support US Treasury yields.

"Gold is under pressure after the Fed decided to pause interest rates, along with a rebound in US government bond yields and the US dollar," said independent analyst Ross Norman . The US dollar index rose, making gold more expensive for buyers with other currencies.

Domestic gold prices increased again by 50,000 to 100,000 VND/tael at the end of the session on June 15, at most precious metal trading systems nationwide.

The price of SJC gold bars has been "alone in the market" for many years now, due to the scarcity of supply, higher than the world gold price by 10-15 million VND/tael depending on the time. Meanwhile, the price of plain round gold rings is equivalent to the world gold price. Therefore, every time the world gold price fluctuates, the domestic plain round gold ring price increases accordingly.

Summary of SJC gold prices at major domestic trading brands at the closing time of the trading session on June 15:

Saigon Jewelry Company listed SJC gold price at 66.55 - 67.17 million VND/tael.

Doji Group currently lists SJC gold price at: 66.50 - 67.10 million VND/tael.

Phu Quy Group listed at: 66.50 - 67.10 million VND/tael.

PNJ system listed at: 66.50 - 67.10 million VND/tael.

SJC gold price at Bao Tin Minh Chau is listed at: 66.50 - 67.02 million VND/tael; Rong Thang Long gold brand is traded at 55.63 - 56.48 million VND/tael; jewelry gold price is traded at 55.30 - 56.30 million VND/tael.

Converting world gold price according to USD exchange rate at Vietcombank: 1 USD = 23,670 VND, world gold price is equivalent to 55.12 million VND/tael, 11.93 million VND/tael lower than SJC gold selling price at the same time.

Gold price forecast?

The gold market largely ignored the economic data as markets continued to digest the Fed's latest monetary policy decision, announced on June 14. While the central bank left interest rates unchanged, the Fed maintained its hawkish tone, signaling that it could raise rates two more times this year as it continues to fight inflation.

According to the CME Fedwatch tool, traders expect a 72% chance the Fed will raise interest rates in July.

The June rate cut deal is done and the Fed's July decision will be a game changer as the deflationary process is likely to continue, but signs of trouble remain. For gold to rally, Wall Street needs to believe the Fed is done raising rates, said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.

Edward Moya said the Fed's pause in rate hikes would be positive for gold. Conversely, any sign that the Fed remains aggressive in tightening monetary policy would mean a sharp sell-off in gold.

In addition to the US economic data, investors are also focusing on the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. As expected, the ECB raised the marginal lending facility and deposit facility rates to 4.00%, 4.25% and 3.50%, respectively. The gold market is struggling against the euro after the ECB raised interest rates and warned investors that inflationary pressures will remain too high for too long.

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