Two weekend shocks: Gold price skyrocketed, will SJC reach 130 million VND?

Gold's spike reversal

The world gold price made an impressive comeback in the last trading session of the week (August 23), erasing concerns about the previous sharp decline. Specifically, spot gold on the Comex floor increased by 33 USD/ounce, equivalent to 1%, closing the session at 3,373 USD/ounce. During the week, this precious metal had plummeted, at times down to 3,310 USD/ounce due to profit-taking pressure from investors and expectations of a stable US economy .

However, two major "shocks" pushed gold prices back up, affirming its position as a safe haven asset.

The first factor is the clear easing signal from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). In a speech at the Jackson Hole conference on August 22, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the "shifting balance of risks" between employment and inflation, with the risk of economic weakness increasing due to tariff and trade policies.

Mr. Powell acknowledged that interest rates are in tight territory and the Fed can adjust its stance if needed, paving the way for a rate cut in September. This is the first time in a long time that the Fed has sent such a clear "dovish" message, even though inflation is at risk of flaring up again.

Many financial and commodity markets in the US and around the world reacted positively: the US Dow Jones industrial stock index increased by more than 600 points in the last session of the week, US bond yields fell sharply. The gold market also benefited.

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World gold prices increase strongly again. Photo: Kitco

The second factor is the worsening prospects for peace in Ukraine, which has heightened geopolitical tensions. Just a week after the summit between Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin in Alaska on August 15, US President Donald Trump on August 22 threatened to impose “very big sanctions or very big tariffs, or both” if there was no peace progress in two weeks.

The momentum for negotiations appears to have dissipated, leaving the parties back at square one. This adds to uncertainty, supporting gold as a hedge against risk.

In addition, gold prices were also pushed up by a sharp increase in crude oil (WTI oil rose to 63.66 USD/barrel due to concerns about supply from the Middle East and Russia) and a weakening USD. The DXY index fell 0.9% to 97.73 points in the session on August 22, making gold cheaper for foreign investors.

In the domestic market, SJC gold prices also "heated up" following the world trend. In the last session of the week, Saigon Jewelry Company (SJC) listed the buying price at 125.6 million VND/tael and the selling price at 126.6 million VND/tael, an increase of 1.2 million VND compared to the previous session - a new record high.

The price of plain round gold rings at Doji also reached a peak of 121.8 million VND/tael (sold).

The difference between SJC and world gold prices remains high, at around VND17.7 million per tael, reflecting strong domestic demand. Since the beginning of the year, world gold prices have increased by 28.5%, while SJC gold has increased by more than 50%.

Will SJC go up to 130 million VND/tael?

The world gold price is facing many strong supporting factors, but also faces the risk of correction. Experts from major financial institutions predict that the increase could last until the end of 2025, with an average of 3,500-3,700 USD/ounce, thanks to the easing of the Fed and geopolitical instability.

However, the possibility of stagflation and trade easing could keep a lid on gold's upside.

First, the prospect of a Fed rate cut is a key driver. Powell at Jackson Hole acknowledged the risks of economic weakness are high, even as inflation could flare up as tariffs “spill through supply chains.” The Fed is heading into an easing cycle, with its benchmark interest rate currently at 4.25%-4.5% a year.

Although investors have already partly priced in the September 17 cut, new signals show the Fed is more dovish, making gold - a non-yielding asset - attractive. Pressure from President Trump is growing: he has continuously criticized the Fed, demanded a sharp interest rate cut, even considered appointing the Fed chair for the next term early and recently threatened to fire Governor Lisa Cook for fraud allegations.

The weakening USD is also a positive factor. The DXY index fell not only due to the Fed but also the trend of de-dollarization (countries like China and Russia increased their gold reserves), the US budget deficit increased. Central banks and ETFs continued to buy gold: according to the World Gold Council, net gold purchases in the first half of 2025 reached a record, with ETFs like SPDR increasing their holdings when the price dipped below $3,300.

On the other hand, the tariff war eased: Trump signed an executive order to postpone tariffs with China for another 90 days, Canada withdrew retaliatory tariffs, opening the way for negotiations. This reduced the risk of inflation, which could cause gold to lose momentum.

Most experts from major financial institutions are optimistic about gold. JP Morgan Research forecasts gold to average $3,675 an ounce in the fourth quarter of 2025, rising to $4,000 in mid-2026, thanks to central bank and investor demand.

Goldman Sachs says central demand will push prices to new records. InvestingHaven sees gold hitting $3,500 by 2025, peaking at $5,155 by 2030.

UBS also issued a forecast, with a target of 3,600 USD by the end of the first quarter of 2026 due to Ukraine tensions and the risk of US economic stagnation.

Domestically, SJC and gold ring prices are supported by the USD/VND exchange rate exceeding 26,500 VND - a record level due to increased imports and foreign capital withdrawal. If world gold hits 3,400-3,500 USD and VND weakens further, SJC could reach 130 million VND/tael in the fourth quarter. However, if the Fed delays cutting due to inflation, prices could adjust down.

Overall, gold remains the "king of safe haven" amid uncertainty, with many forecasts of a 5-10% increase by the end of the year, with the focus on the Fed's actions and the situation in Ukraine as well as the tariff war between the US and other countries. Domestically, the price of SJC gold is not far from the 130 million VND/tael mark.

The US and Russia have not reached an agreement: What is the forecast for the upcoming gold price? The world gold price experienced the sharpest decline since June in the week of August 11-15 amid mixed US inflation data. The US-Russia summit ended without reaching an agreement on Ukraine, which could boost gold demand.

Source: https://vietnamnet.vn/hai-cua-soc-cuoi-tuan-du-bao-gia-vang-sjc-co-len-130-trieu-dong-2435460.html