What governance plan for Gaza?

Optimistic plans for post-war Gaza that had just been put on the negotiating table by many parties were overshadowed when the situation in the Middle East became unprecedentedly tense after two airstrikes that occurred just hours apart, leading to the deaths of two senior officials of the Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip and the Hezbollah force in Lebanon.

World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned that thousands of children in Gaza are at high risk of contracting polio if timely preventive measures are not taken. Photo: UNICEF

Lack of factual basis

Since the outbreak of the war in Gaza, this is not the first time that high-ranking officials of countries and entities hostile to Israel have been killed in attacks. The deaths of two senior figures from Hezbollah and Hamas occurred not long after the Houthi movement in Yemen attacked the city of Tel Aviv, combined with Iran's announcement of retaliation. It can be said that Israel is "being attacked on all sides".

According to a statement issued on August 2 by Pentagon Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin “ordered adjustments to the US military posture to improve the ability to protect US forces, increase support for Israel's defense, and ensure the US is ready to respond to a variety of contingencies.”

However, analysts say there are many signs that neither side wants to “trigger” a full-scale confrontation (because Israel risks getting bogged down in the Gaza Strip, and Iran and Hezbollah both have internal difficulties that need to be addressed). However, optimistic plans for Gaza lack a realistic basis, because things like aid, security and reconstruction are more difficult than people think. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) currently controls 26% of Gaza. No one can control the remaining 74%. Without security, aid distribution cannot be carried out effectively, while Gazans cannot survive without aid.

Seeds of extremist forces

The Israeli military controls two corridors in Gaza, one in the center and one along the border with Egypt. The rest of the territory is largely ungoverned, with criminals stealing humanitarian aid, stealing cash from ATMs and looting stores. Meanwhile, the police, who kept order in Gaza before the war, are now severely understaffed. According to Stratfor Worldview, the Israeli government is facing domestic and international pressure to come up with a plan to gradually end its military operations and return civil and political duties to local authorities in Gaza.

To balance this pressure, Israel is likely to look to its Palestinian partners to create an Israeli-Palestinian government that would give Palestinians civil power and Israel security. The scenario experts suggest is that Israel could first seek to create a new civil government run by Palestinian officials in Gaza or the West Bank, who have no ties to Hamas or the Palestinian National Authority (PA), to restore basic services and reduce extremism in the Gaza Strip. Israel has struggled to find candidates with enough executive experience, so over time it could turn to Palestinians with ties to established groups.

The PA has also said it is willing to return to Gaza, but only as part of a process leading to a Palestinian state. However, Israel's international allies and many regional powers are pushing for other solutions. While Egypt has called for a complete IDF withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has asked the United States to join a post-war peacekeeping force. At the same time, the Arab League has proposed deploying a UN peacekeeping force to Gaza to internationalize the management solution.

In the short term, Israel’s policy in Gaza resembles a militarized version of its occupation of the West Bank. Israel will likely continue its raids and withdrawals in Gaza for at least several months as it continues to pursue Hamas militants and leaders. However, this could create a weak and unpopular civilian government, leading to the return of militants to Gaza, challenging Israel’s ability to maintain its presence in the strip over the long term.

In the absence of coherent policies, weakened civil authority, and security gaps, new extremist factions could emerge, including those influenced by the Islamic State (IS), new Palestinian factions such as the Lions' Den militant group, or existing factions such as the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).

Synthesized HINGED CHI

Source: https://www.sggp.org.vn/ke-hoach-quan-ly-nao-cho-gaza-post752594.html