Stock market perspective October 18: The possibility of the market continuing its downward trend

Investment comments

BOS Securities: Technically, VN-Index fell sharply through the support of MA10 at the 1,030-1,040 zone, showing that the short-term trend continues to be bearish.

Weak demand shows that cash flow is not strong enough to absorb the selling supply, causing a series of midcap stocks to hit the floor, further proving that large investors are still staying out of the market. The index is forecast to continue its downward trend in the coming sessions. Investors are advised to continue to keep a high cash ratio and not participate in bottom fishing.

VCBS Securities: From a technical perspective, the VN-Index closed the session forming a red candlestick, wiping out all the recovery efforts of the previous week and returning to the nearest old bottom at 1,120 points. At the same time, the index also failed to surpass MA20. Thus, the probability of active selling liquidity increasing sharply in the coming sessions and pushing the index to continue its downward trend should be taken into account. The nearest support levels are currently the 1,100 point and 1,050 point zones.

VCBS recommends that investors proactively reduce their portfolios and restructure stocks by replacing stocks that have returned to a downward trend in the October 17 session or have not yet escaped the downward trend with stocks in industry groups that are still in an accumulation price base and have fundamental factors such as banking, electricity, and consumer goods, and should only maintain a stock proportion of 20-30%.

Phu Hung Securities: From a technical perspective, the VN-Index had its second consecutive decline. Trading volume dropped below the 10- and 20-session averages, implying that cash flow is quite cautious. Not only that, the index appeared a long, concentrated bearish candle and maintained a close below the MA5, along with the MA20 remaining in a negative downward state, indicating that the short-term downtrend is strengthening.

Overall, the market is in a short-term downtrend after the session on October 17. Therefore, investors should keep their portfolio proportion at a safe level. In particular, holding positions should only prioritize stocks with good fundamentals, positive business growth in the third quarter and attracting strong cash flow.

Stock news

- Updated from the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange, the list of component stocks of the VNDiamond index basket for the October 2023 period has changed. Compared to the update on the late afternoon of October 16, the list announced on the morning of October 17 recorded the appearance of VRE stock of Vincom Retail Joint Stock Company. Thus, in this restructuring, the VNDiamond index basket added two new stocks, HDB and VRE, while DHC was eliminated. The number of stocks in the VNDiamond basket increased to 18 securities codes.

- Based on the results of the first 9 months, it is estimated that for the whole year of 2023, at least 10/15 targets will reach and exceed the targets set out in Resolution No. 68/2022/QH15. The Government forecasts that for the whole year of 2023, GDP growth will reach about 5%, although lower than the set target (about 6.5%), it is still quite high compared to many countries in the world and the region.

The average consumer price index for the whole year is estimated at about 3.5%, much lower than the target of about 4.5%. The State budget revenue strives to meet or exceed the assigned estimate. Regarding trade, Vietnam is estimated to have a trade surplus of about 15 billion USD in 2023 .

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