Why scientists are worried about a record heatwave in 2023

Most scientists fear that climate change has already reached the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Warming air and oceans are creating more heat waves that are not only economically damaging but even deadly.

In addition, global warming increases the likelihood of natural disasters such as floods, droughts, hurricanes and wildfires. "The heat of the past year was a dramatic message from Mother Nature," said climate scientist Katharine Jacobs of the University of Arizona.

A temple in Lahaina, Hawaii, destroyed by wildfires. Photo: AP

Unusual weather changes

According to the latest calculations on Friday (January 12) by leading meteorological agencies, the average global temperature in 2023 will be more than 0.15 degrees Celsius higher than the previous temperature record.

According to some scientists, the climate of 2023 has been moving in strange, unpredictable directions. As temperatures in 2023 have suddenly and rapidly increased since mid-June, scientists are asking whether human-caused climate change and the natural El Niño phenomenon are being driven by a mysterious factor, or if “something more systematic is going on.”

The answer to that question may have to wait until late spring or early summer, when the strong El Niño is expected to end. Scientists say that if ocean temperatures, including deep water, continue to stay at their previous levels through the summer, similar to 2023, the situation will be very worrying.

2023 is officially the hottest year on record. Source: ERA5

Many scientists believe that greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels are the leading cause of the world reaching temperatures never seen before by human civilization, while the current “very strong” El Niño phenomenon is the second-biggest cause.

When it comes to the weather in 2023, NASA's chief climatologist Gavin Schmidt said 2023 is going to be a very strange year. "The more you look into it, the more unclear it becomes."

One of the biggest uncertainties is when the 2023 heat wave will begin, according to Schmidt and Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the European Copernicus Climate Service. Typically, temperatures peak in late winter and spring (winter and spring in the U.S. end in late March and late June, respectively). But the 2023 heat wave started around June and lasted for several months.

The 1.5°C target is difficult to achieve.

According to calculations by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the average temperature of the Earth in 2023 is 15.08 degrees Celsius, 0.15 degrees Celsius hotter than the record in 2016 and 1.35 degrees Celsius hotter than the pre-industrial period.

A woman uses a fan to block the sun in Madrid, Spain. Photo: AP

Combining measurements released Friday with Japanese and European calculations released earlier this month, the World Meteorological Organization pegged 2023 at 1.45 degrees Celsius hotter than pre-industrial temperatures.

Many climate scientists see little hope of limiting warming to the 1.5 degrees Celsius called for in the 2015 Paris agreement, the goal aimed at preventing the worst consequences of climate change.

"I think it's unrealistic to think that we can limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius," said scientist Jennifer Francis of the Woodwell Climate Research Centre.

Both NASA and NOAA say the past 10 years (2014 to 2023) were the 10 hottest years they have ever measured. This is the third time in the past eight years that global temperature records have been set.

Arizona State University scientist Randall Cerveny said the biggest concern isn't that the record was broken last year, but that it's being broken so often. "To me, the rate of change is what's most alarming," Cerveny said.

“This is just the beginning of what could happen in the future, especially if we continue to fail to cut carbon dioxide emissions in a timely manner,” said Cornell University climate scientist Natalie Mahowald.

Not only Ms. Mahowald, climate scientist Kim Cobb of Brown University also expressed: "I have been worried since the early 1990s. Now I am more worried than ever. My worry increases every year as global emissions go in the wrong direction."

Hoai Phuong (according to AP)

Source: https://www.congluan.vn/ly-do-cac-nha-khoa-hoc-lo-lang-ve-dot-nang-nong-ky-luc-nam-2023-post280789.html