Many businesses "feel the pain" of US tariffs

Companies globally had projected a combined hit of more than $35 billion from U.S. tariffs for this year and next as they entered the third-quarter 2025 earnings season. But many are revising down their initial forecasts as new trade deals ease the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

President Trump’s tax policies have pushed US tariffs to their highest levels since the 1930s. Although the US president has repeatedly warned of possible tariff increases, the uncertainty that businesses worry about is fading, allowing business leaders to forecast costs and plan more clearly, including raising product prices.

The analysis of hundreds of reports and earnings calls from July 16 to September 30 found that companies expect total financial losses of $21 billion to $22.9 billion for 2025, and nearly $15 billion for 2026. The total loss of more than $35 billion is higher than the $34 billion figure compiled in May 2025, after President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs in April 2025 significantly affected global supply chains. But the increase is mainly due to the largest loss estimate of $9.5 billion from Japanese automaker Toyota. Meanwhile, many other companies have lowered their worst-case forecasts after President Trump reached trade deals that lowered tariffs on the European Union (EU) and Japan. Both French spirits makers Remy Cointreau and Pernod Ricard, as well as consumer electronics giant Sony, have cut their forecasts for tariff damage.

According to data from analytics firm LSEG, the profit growth rate of companies in the S&P 500 index is expected to be 9.3% in the third quarter of 2025, down from 13.8% in the second quarter of 2025, mainly due to strong growth in the US information technology sector due to heavy investment in artificial intelligence (AI). Meanwhile, the profit of companies in the European Stoxx 600 index is expected to grow only 0.5%, down from 4% in the previous quarter.

The pain is concentrated on companies that rely on countries that have not yet signed trade deals with the US. Sportswear maker Nike raised its estimate of the tariff impact to $1.5 billion from $1 billion. Meanwhile, kitchen appliance maker Tefal SEB cut its profit outlook, citing weaker demand as customers adopted a wait-and-see attitude, in part because of tariffs. Fashion maker H&M warned that US tariffs on imports would narrow profit margins in the quarter ending November 2025.

Many companies have mentioned price increases in response to the impact of US tariffs. Leading automakers, including Ford, Stellantis, Volkswagen and Toyota, have said they have incurred billions of dollars in tariff-related costs. However, optimism has grown in the auto industry as President Trump has moved toward significant tax cuts for US auto production, which could eliminate many of the costs affecting the big automakers.

Source: https://vtv.vn/nhieu-doanh-nghiep-tham-don-thue-quan-my-100251021075450885.htm