Vietnam's economic growth is forecast to continue to increase.

After UOB Bank, the Asian Development Bank has also just released a report forecasting Vietnam's economic growth in 2025 to exceed 6.5%.

Workers at a plastic factory in Hai Phong - Photo: AFP

On September 30, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) adjusted Vietnam's economic growth forecast to 6.7% in 2025 and down to 6% for 2026.

This forecast was made by ADB in the recently released Asian Development Outlook Report September 2025, with the inflation forecast adjusted slightly downward compared to the forecasts in April.

This is an upward adjustment compared to the 6.6% forecast by ADB in April. However, ADB lowered Vietnam's growth forecast for 2026 to 6%, lower than the previous forecast of 6.5%.

According to ADB, increased exports before the US applied new tariffs, along with government support policies, have boosted Vietnam's economic growth in the first half of 2025.

And while the economy remains resilient, growth is expected to ease from the first-half surge, due to the impact of US reciprocal tariffs that took effect in August.

“Better coordination between effective implementation of fiscal and monetary policies will help avoid excessive pressure on monetary instruments and ensure macroeconomic and financial stability,” said Mr. Shantanu Chakraborty, ADB Country Director for Vietnam.

ADB experts said that the US reciprocal tariffs on goods imported from Vietnam will pose a risk of a short-term slowdown in economic growth. For the rest of the year, Washington's tax policy is expected to impact trade and investment.

According to ADB recommendations, Vietnam will need to reform to promote a more balanced growth model, with momentum from the domestic market, along with diversifying export markets to minimize the impact of tariffs.

“In the long term, comprehensive regulatory reforms need to address structural challenges, such as ensuring climate resilience, promoting private sector competitiveness, improving the efficiency of state-owned enterprises, modernizing the tax system and digital transformation,” Mr. Chakraborty emphasized as key elements for Vietnam’s more balanced growth model.

Meanwhile, ADB also forecasts Vietnam's inflation in 2025 to be at 3.9%, and to decrease slightly to 3.8% in 2026.

Many organizations forecast Vietnam's economic growth at a positive level.

Previously, UOB Bank (Singapore) also raised its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth to 7.5% in 2025.

Explaining the above forecast, UOB said the strong growth momentum was driven by a 14% increase in Vietnam's export turnover compared to the same period, in addition to the assessment that the unstable tariff situation has eased in the second half of 2025.

According to the World Bank, Vietnam in the first half of 2025 has strong GDP growth momentum from exports, investment and tourism, with GDP for the whole year expected to be at 6.6%.

NGHI VU

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/tang-truong-kinh-te-cua-viet-nam-tiep-tuc-duoc-du-bao-tang-20250930161516761.htm