ADB raises Vietnam's economic growth forecast to 6.7%

ADB forecasts Vietnam's economic growth to reach 6.7%.

Vietnam's economy is on the path of recovery and development.

Reviewing the results that Vietnam's economy achieved in the first months of 2025, ADB said that growth impressive year-on-year growth of 7.5% compared to 6.4% in the first half of 2024, marking the highest first-half rate since 2010.

Industry and construction growth is expected to accelerate to 8.3% in the first half of 2025 from 7.5% in the first half of 2024. A surge in new export orders before the US imposed reciprocal tariffs boosted manufacturing to 10.1%.

In spite of public investment The full-year target has not been met, but actual disbursements have contributed to the construction sector growing 9.6% compared to 7.3% in the same period in 2024. Fiscal growth and the recovery of tourism and related industries have boosted services to grow 8.1%. Agriculture grew 3.8%, showing resilience to external uncertainties and supported by price stability.

Mr. Shantanu Chakraborty, ADB Country Director in Vietnam, expressed his impression with the results Vietnam has achieved.

Mr. Shantanu Chakraborty, ADB Country Director for Vietnam impressed with the results achieved by Vietnam: Despite major global challenges, the Vietnamese economy still achieved outstanding results in the first half of 2025.

Economy continue steady in the period 2025–2026

At the press conference, ADB Vietnam Chief Economist Nguyen Ba Hung analyzed the advantages and risks of the economy in the coming time. Accordingly, the economy will remain stable in the period 2025-2026, thanks to expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. The US reciprocal tariffs, effective from August 7, 2025, of 20% on imports and 40% on transit goods, may affect short-term growth, but economic stimulus policies are expected to mitigate this impact.

ADB Vietnam Chief Economist Nguyen Ba Hung speaks at the Press Conference.

Most important sectors such as industry, manufacturing, services, consumption... are forecast to have positive growth.

Agriculture is forecast to grow at a fairly high rate of 3.4% in 2025. According to Mr. Nguyen Ba Hung, global demand for high-quality and sustainable food, along with the widespread adoption of smart farming technology, will boost the sector. However, the agricultural sector still faces climate risks, land fragmentation, limited access to technology for smallholder farmers and volatility in global commodity prices.

Mr. Nguyen Ba Hung recommended that effective public investment is a key factor to maintain growth and reduce infrastructure bottlenecks. With a public debt ratio of less than 34% of GDP - much lower than the statutory ceiling of 60%, Vietnam still has a lot of fiscal space for growth support measures. Extensive institutional reforms will help streamline the legal environment, improve disbursement efficiency and boost the domestic economy. However, the ADB also recommended that capacity constraints in project planning, implementation and management at all levels will continue to affect timely disbursement.

Inflation is forecast by ADB to be 3.9% in 2025 and moderate to 3.8% in 2026. Lower global energy prices have contributed to a reduction in transport costs, which account for a significant share of the consumption basket. However, the government’s continued upward adjustments in health, education , and electricity prices continue to create inflationary pressures. Accelerated public investment disbursements and high credit growth could increase prices of materials and services. Currency depreciation could further increase inflation through higher import costs.

Commenting on Vietnam’s economic growth target of 8.3%–8.5% in 2025, aiming for double-digit growth in the coming years, Mr. Shantanu Chakraborty, ADB Country Director for Vietnam, said that these targets are set in the context of increasing challenges from reciprocal tariffs and escalating global and regional geopolitical tensions. To maintain growth momentum, emerging risks and structural constraints need to be effectively addressed.

Overall, growth forecasts for 2025 are revised up slightly, but lower for 2026, according to ADB. Downside risks to the growth outlook come from global uncertainties and domestic factors.

Source: https://baoquangninh.vn/adb-nang-muc-du-bao-tang-truong-kinh-te-viet-nam-len-6-7-3377964.html