World 2023 record heat and El Nino concerns

Since a month ago, when summer has just begun, many Asian countries have been struggling with record high temperatures. In many European countries, the problem of scorching heat has been raging since before that. El Nino - the phenomenon of global warming seems to have become not only a risk as previously warned but also a "ghost" that is looming and threatening the world.

2023: The year of new heat records?

On May 29, in a notice posted on its official Weibo account, the Shanghai Weather Bureau (China) stated: “At 1:09 p.m., the temperature at Xujiahui Metro Station reached 36.1°C, breaking the record for the highest temperatures in May recorded in the past 100 years.” It is worth noting that China began to experience heat waves in some areas as early as March this year. Even in places like Yunnan, Southwest China, which is known for its mild weather, recently experienced temperatures of over 40°C.

The situation in many Asian countries is not much different. Since April, in Laos, the temperature recorded in Luang Prabang city on April 18 was 42.7°C. The temperature in the Thai capital reached 42°C on April 22 and the heat index (the actual felt temperature when combined with humidity) reached 54°C. Before that, most of Thailand had been experiencing heat in the 40°C range since late March. Myanmar also set a temperature record on April 17 when Kalewa in the central Sagaing region reached 44°C.

A man washes his face with water to cool off in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Photo: EPA-EFE.

Parts of India recorded temperatures of more than 44°C in mid-April and at least 11 deaths near Mumbai were attributed to heatstroke. State governments across the country have closed schools and ministers have urged children to stay home to avoid headaches and fatigue.

In Bangladesh, the capital Dhaka also experienced its hottest day in nearly 60 years. On May 13, Singapore's National Environment Agency recorded its highest temperature in 40 years at 37°C.

In Europe, research published in April 2023 found that solar radiation across the continent was at its highest level in 40 years. Many North American countries are also struggling with heat. Several cities in British Columbia on May 14 set new monthly temperature records, including Lytton, which reached 36.1°C.

When El Nino returns

El Nino is the term used to describe the phenomenon of abnormal warming of the surface ocean water in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, lasting from 8 to 12 months or longer, usually occurring every 3 to 4 years, but sometimes more or less frequent.

This year, experts said early in the year that after three years of La Nina weather patterns, climate models showed the world would see the return of El Nino later this year. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted an 80% chance of El Nino appearing by the end of the summer of 2023.

Most recently, on May 3, the United Nations (UN) warned of an increasing risk of El Nino occurring in the coming months, causing global temperatures to rise and possibly leading to new heat records. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) assessed the possibility of El Nino occurring in late July at 60% and late September at 80%. The UN also warned that the period 2023-2027 will almost certainly be the warmest five years on record, in the context of greenhouse gases and the El Nino phenomenon combining to cause a sharp increase in temperatures. WMO forecasts that temperatures in 2023 could be higher than the average of the period 1991-2020 in most regions of the world, except Alaska, South Africa, South Asia and some areas of Australia.

A taxi driver drinks water in the midday heat in Kolkata, India on April 18. Photo: Getty Images

Climate scientists also say the world could break a new average temperature record in 2023 or 2024, due to climate change and the expected return of the El Nino weather phenomenon.

Friederike Otto, a senior lecturer at Imperial College London's Grantham Institute, said El Nino-induced heat could exacerbate the impacts of climate change already being experienced by countries including severe heatwaves, droughts and wildfires. "If El Nino develops, it is very likely that 2023 will be even hotter than 2016 - given that the world continues to warm as humans continue to burn fossil fuels," Otto said.

The last major El Niño occurred in 2016 and made it the hottest year in recorded history. Over the past seven years, global warming has only increased.

According to the head of the WMO's regional climate forecasting service, Wilfran Moufouma Okia, this phenomenon will lead to changes in weather and climate patterns around the world. A recent report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned that "every time the global climate warms, it increases multiple risks at the same time."

And in fact, previous years have shown that when El Nino appears, the consequences that this phenomenon causes are not only heat but also terrible consequences for people and property. During the El Nino period of 1982-1983, the global economy lost 4,100 billion USD and during the El Nino period of 1997-1998, the world lost 5,700 billion USD. Researchers estimate that the El Nino predicted for 2023 alone could slow the global economy by up to 3,000 billion USD. The El Nino phenomenon was the cause of the forest fire disaster in Indonesia in 2015, toxic smoke from the fires spread to neighboring countries such as Singapore and Malaysia, and is believed to be the cause of premature death for more than 100,000 people.

Prepare thoroughly to cope

When El Nino returns, the only thing humanity can do is find ways to cope with it and minimize the damage it causes. “The world should prepare for the development of El Nino, which is often associated with higher temperatures or drought. It can bring respite from drought in the Horn of Africa and other impacts of La Nina, but it can also bring more extreme weather and climate events. This highlights the need for the United Nations to provide early warning to help people stay safe,” WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas warned.

According to WMO's recommendations, early warning not only helps people protect themselves against natural disasters, but also enables experts to adjust crop recommendations, release or maintain dam water levels if possible, or simply stockpile disaster relief supplies.

In response to this situation, some countries have developed specific response plans. For example, in India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi chaired a high-level meeting to review the government's preparations for the coming months, in anticipation of severe heat. This includes requiring hospitals and medical facilities to conduct fire risk checks and fire safety drills.

In addition, Prime Minister Modi asked the media to regularly report and explain clearly to people about the weather situation so that they can take appropriate measures. According to Dileep Mavalankar - Director of the Indian Institute of Public Health based in Gujarat, said that India's first heat action plan has been drawn up, which includes simple solutions such as guiding people on what to do in case of high temperatures and preparing the health system to deal with heat emergencies.

In the Philippines, government agencies have stressed the importance of preventing a potential El Nino-induced water crisis to avoid a repeat of 2019, when about 10,000 households in Metro Manila were left without water as the capital’s main reservoirs dried up. In Indonesia, the government has also encouraged farmers and plantation companies to prepare for fires in Sumatra and Kalimantan ahead of the El Nino event.

Ha Anh

Source: https://www.congluan.vn/the-gioi-2023-nang-nong-ky-luc-va-moi-lo-el-nino-post249918.html